Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• Perpetua Resources is advancing the Stibnite Gold Project in Idaho, aiming to become the sole domestic U.S. source of mined antimony, a critical mineral for national defense and technology, alongside significant gold production, while undertaking extensive environmental restoration of a historical mine site.
• Recent major milestones, including the USFS Record of Decision (Jan 2025) and the final federal Clean Water Act permit from the Army Corps (May 2025), significantly de-risk the permitting pathway and position the project for a potential construction decision in 2025.
• The project boasts robust economics with an estimated $3.7 billion after-tax NPV(5%) and over 27% IRR at spot pricing, underpinned by a high-grade gold reserve (4.8M oz) and the strategic 148M lb antimony reserve, supported by U.S. government interest and potential financing up to $2 billion from U.S. EXIM.
• Despite permitting success and strong project fundamentals, the company faces a critical near-term liquidity challenge, with available cash for non-DPA expenses expected to be exhausted in Q3 2025, necessitating significant additional financing to continue operations and advance construction readiness.
• Key factors to watch include securing comprehensive project financing, resolving remaining state-level permitting challenges, and the outcomes of ongoing legal challenges to federal approvals and a securities fraud lawsuit.

Perpetua Resources: Forging a Domestic Critical Mineral Future

Perpetua Resources Corp., rooted in the Stibnite Yellow Pine mining district of central Idaho since its origins as Midas Gold Corp. in 2011, is not a typical exploration company. Its vision extends beyond resource extraction to encompass environmental restoration and national strategic importance. The company's principal asset, the Stibnite Gold Project, is being developed with a multi-faceted objective: to establish the United States' only mined source of the critical mineral antimony, develop one of the country's largest and highest-grade open-pit gold mines, and remediate the environmental legacy of historical mining operations at the site. This ambitious strategy positions Perpetua uniquely within the mining landscape, intertwining economic potential with environmental stewardship and national security imperatives.

The company's journey has been marked by a rigorous, multi-year permitting process under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), initiated in 2016. This extensive review, involving numerous federal and state agencies, underscores the complexity and environmental sensitivity of the project site. Concurrently, Perpetua has engaged in voluntary environmental cleanup actions, including an Administrative Settlement Agreement and Order on Consent (ASAOC) with the U.S. EPA and USDA, demonstrating a commitment to addressing historical impacts even before full-scale development. This history of navigating complex regulatory and environmental challenges is foundational to understanding the company's current strategic focus on permitting completion and construction readiness.

In the competitive sphere, Perpetua operates within the broader gold and silver mining industry, facing established giants like Barrick Gold (ABX), Newmont Corporation (NEM), Kinross Gold (KGC), and Hecla Mining Company (HL). While these larger players boast significant global market share, established production, and robust financial metrics (e.g., Barrick's 12% revenue growth and 45% gross margin in 2024, Newmont's 8% growth and 40% gross margin), Perpetua is still in the development stage with no operating revenue. Its competitive positioning is defined not by current production scale, but by the strategic nature of its resource and its differentiated approach.

Perpetua's key competitive advantage lies in its Stibnite Gold Project's unique combination of gold and antimony reserves, particularly the latter. Antimony is a critical mineral essential for defense applications, energy storage (like Ambri's liquid metal batteries), and technology. With China historically dominating global antimony supply and having recently blocked exports, the Stibnite project represents a potential near-term solution for re-establishing a secure domestic supply chain. This strategic importance has garnered significant U.S. government support, including Defense Production Act (DPA) funding and recognition as a White House Priority Project. While larger gold miners like Barrick and Newmont focus on scale and cost efficiency in gold production (with AISC around $1,100-$1,300/oz), Perpetua's project economics are bolstered by the valuable antimony by-product and the potential for lower operating costs per ounce of gold (projected $1,000-$1,200/oz AISC) driven by factors like access to low-cost hydro power.

The company's approach also incorporates advanced processing techniques aimed at sustainable mining. While specific quantifiable performance metrics for these technologies compared to industry standards are not detailed, the strategic intent is clear: to achieve higher recovery rates and lower environmental impact. R&D initiatives, such as the pilot plant study funded by the DOD's Ordnance Technology Initiative Agreement (OTIA), are focused on demonstrating a fully domestic antimony trisulfide supply chain and designing the full-scale process circuit. The stated goal is to produce military-specification antimony trisulfide from Stibnite ore, a critical step in validating the project's strategic value. For investors, this technological focus, particularly on antimony processing and environmental restoration, contributes to a unique value proposition and potential market differentiation beyond traditional gold mining.

Recent Performance and the Path to Construction

As a development-stage company, Perpetua's financial performance is characterized by significant expenditures related to exploration, permitting, and construction readiness, rather than revenue generation. For the three months ended March 31, 2025, the company reported a net loss of $8.20 million, a notable increase from the $2.94 million net loss in the same period of 2024. This widening loss was primarily driven by a substantial 99% increase in exploration expenses, rising from $6.57 million in Q1 2024 to $13.09 million in Q1 2025. This surge in spending reflects the company's intensified focus on advancing permits and construction readiness activities, including a $2.50 million increase in engineering costs, a $1.50 million increase in permitting costs, and a $1.20 million increase in consulting and labor costs.

Offsetting some of these costs was an increase in grant income, which rose by 23% to $6.38 million in Q1 2025 from $5.17 million in Q1 2024. This income stems from the DOD grants (TIA and OTIA) designed to reimburse certain project-related expenses, particularly those linked to environmental studies, engineering, and supply chain demonstration. The ramp-up in reimbursable construction readiness activities directly contributed to this increase. Interest income also saw a significant jump, reaching $377,966 in Q1 2025 compared to $16,537 in Q1 2024, a result of higher average cash balances held by the company. Environmental liability expense decreased to nil in Q1 2025, down from $153,429, as the company determined it had completed all required Phase 1 environmental response actions under the ASAOC in late 2024. Professional fees, however, increased by 57% to $0.60 million, mainly due to higher legal costs.

Liquidity remains a critical focus area for Perpetua. As of March 31, 2025, the company held $19.10 million in cash and cash equivalents, $2.70 million in receivables (largely from DOD grants), and $18.80 million in deposits (primarily the initial payment for long-lead power line equipment to Idaho Power). While the company received approximately $33.20 million in net proceeds from an equity offering in November 2024 and has $6.20 million remaining under its ATM facility, its latest liquidity forecast indicates that available cash for expenses not eligible for DPA reimbursement is projected to be exhausted in the third quarter of 2025. This situation, coupled with the need for substantial funding to advance construction readiness and ultimately build the project, raises substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern for the next year without securing additional financing.

The company is actively pursuing various funding avenues, including further equity or debt issuances, project-specific debt, and government funding. A key initiative is the formal application submitted to the U.S. EXIM Bank in May 2025 for potential debt financing of up to $2 billion, building on a $1.8 billion Letter of Interest received in April 2024. Securing this or other significant financing is paramount for the company to meet its ongoing obligations and fund the estimated $2.215 billion capital cost for project development (as of Q4 2024). Anticipated expenditures for fiscal year 2025, excluding the impact of a construction decision, are approximately $67.50 million, with only about $10.00 million expected to be covered by remaining TIA reimbursements (available through June 16, 2025). The timing and nature of securing this crucial financing will dictate the pace of construction readiness and the potential for a construction decision in 2025.

Permitting Milestones and Future Outlook

The first quarter of 2025 and the subsequent period have been transformative for Perpetua's permitting efforts. On January 3, 2025, the U.S. Forest Service issued the Final Record of Decision (ROD) authorizing the Modified Mine Plan for the Stibnite Gold Project, a culmination of eight years of federal review and a critical milestone. This was followed by another major achievement on May 19, 2025, when the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers issued the Clean Water Act Section 404 permit, marking the receipt of the final required federal permit. These federal approvals significantly de-risk the project's regulatory pathway and are essential prerequisites for moving towards a construction decision.

With federal permits largely secured, the company's focus shifts to finalizing remaining state permits and securing project financing. Key state permits still under review include the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality's (IDEQ) Clean Water Act Section 401 Water Quality Certification (facing administrative challenge and potential modification), the Clean Air Act Permit to Construct (under appeal after a hearing officer ruled in the company's favor), and the remaining portions of the cyanidation facility permit application (IDEQ approved the closure plan, reclamation plan, and financial assurance estimate on March 31, 2025). The Idaho Department of Water Resources granted certain water rights applications on January 24, 2025. While significant progress has been made, the administrative and legal challenges to state permits introduce potential for delays.

The company's outlook for 2025 centers on achieving a construction decision. This hinges directly on finalizing remaining state permits and, critically, securing comprehensive project financing. The submission of the formal application to U.S. EXIM for up to $2 billion in potential debt financing is a major step in this direction, potentially funding a majority of the project's development costs and leveraging the project's strategic importance for domestic antimony supply. The project's robust economics, highlighted by the $3.7 billion after-tax NPV(5%) and over 27% IRR at spot pricing, provide a strong foundation for financing discussions. The estimated production profile of 450,000 ounces of gold annually for the first four years and the supply of roughly 35% of U.S. antimony demand for the first six years underscore the project's potential economic and strategic value.

Construction readiness activities are progressing in parallel, including the successful completion of basic engineering and a cost update in Q1 2025, commencement of detailed engineering, execution of a procurement contract with Idaho Power for long-lead power line items (including the $18.80 million deposit), and awarding early contractor involvement contracts. These steps are vital for preparing the project for construction once financing is secured and all permits are in hand.

Risks and Challenges on the Horizon

Despite the significant permitting progress and strong project fundamentals, Perpetua Resources faces substantial risks that could impact its ability to execute its strategy and deliver value to investors. The most immediate and pressing risk is liquidity. As highlighted in the Q1 2025 filing, the company's available cash for expenses not covered by DPA funding is projected to be depleted in Q3 2025. Securing additional financing is not certain and is subject to market conditions, due diligence, negotiation of terms, and other factors outside the company's complete control. Failure to obtain sufficient funding on acceptable terms, or at all, would severely impact the company's ability to continue operations, advance construction readiness, and ultimately develop the project, raising substantial doubt about its going concern status.

Legal challenges pose another significant risk. Following the issuance of the federal ROD and FEIS, lawsuits were filed in February 2025 against the USFS and other federal agencies by various groups, alleging violations of NEPA and other laws and seeking to vacate project approvals and enjoin further implementation. While Perpetua has intervened and believes the federal process was thorough, there is no guarantee that the permits will be upheld upon judicial review. A successful legal challenge could significantly delay or even prevent project development. Furthermore, a putative federal class action lawsuit filed in March 2025 alleges securities fraud related to statements about expected capital expenditures, citing the significant increase announced in February 2025. While the company intends to vigorously defend itself, the outcome of litigation is inherently uncertain.

Delays or unfavorable outcomes in securing the remaining state permits also present a risk. Administrative challenges and potential modifications to permits like the CWA Water Quality Certification could prolong the pre-construction phase. Cost overruns, delays, and the impact of external factors like inflation, elevated interest rates, and potential tariffs could increase the estimated capital and operating costs, potentially impacting project economics and financing requirements.

Competitively, while Perpetua has a unique strategic asset in the U.S. antimony reserve and a differentiated approach focused on restoration, it lacks the scale, operational history, and financial strength of major gold producers like Barrick and Newmont. Its ability to compete effectively in the broader gold market will depend on achieving projected low operating costs and leveraging the value of the antimony by-product. The success of its sustainable mining technologies and R&D efforts will be key to realizing potential efficiency gains and maintaining a competitive edge.

Conclusion

Perpetua Resources stands at a pivotal juncture, having achieved major federal permitting milestones that validate the Stibnite Gold Project's potential as a significant domestic source of gold and, critically, the sole U.S. mined source of antimony. The project's robust economics, coupled with strong U.S. government interest in securing critical mineral supply chains, paint a compelling long-term picture. The company's strategic focus on environmental restoration further differentiates it in an industry increasingly scrutinized for its environmental footprint.

However, the path forward is challenging. The immediate need to secure substantial additional financing to bridge the liquidity gap and fund construction is paramount. The success of the U.S. EXIM application and other funding efforts will be the most critical determinant of the project's near-term future. Simultaneously, the company must navigate ongoing legal challenges to its federal permits and finalize remaining state approvals. For investors, Perpetua represents a high-potential, high-risk opportunity tied to the successful execution of its financing and permitting strategies. The unique combination of a world-class gold deposit, a strategically vital critical mineral, and a commitment to environmental restoration positions Perpetua to potentially deliver significant value, provided it can overcome the substantial financial and regulatory hurdles that remain.