Enjoying this content?
Get three under-the-radar investment themes delivered to your inbox every Monday.
The great ammunition liquidation has ended
Theme 1: Ammunition Industry Pricing Power Returns After Historic 2025 Collapse
The ammunition market experienced an unprecedented collapse throughout 2025, with 9mm rounds falling 75% from pandemic highs to just 20 cents per round, and current prices sitting 35% below pre-pandemic 2019 levels. This dramatic decline was driven by oversupply from pre-tariff imports, reduced post-election demand, and economic pressures on consumer spending.
Kinetic Group's announcement represents a fundamental shift in market dynamics. When the largest player in the ammunition market implements broad-based price increases, it typically sets the tone for industry-wide pricing adjustments. The company's rationale of rising raw material costs suggests that the artificial oversupply conditions are normalizing.
The timing creates additional advantages for manufacturers, as they can sell existing lower-cost inventory at higher prices while benefiting from the approaching hunting season demand. With warehouses currently full and retailers heavily discounting to clear inventory, this price increase signals that the liquidation phase may be ending.
Stocks that would benefit:
SWBI: Smith & Wesson Brands Inc - While primarily known for firearms, Smith & Wesson has strategically diversified into ammunition production to capture more of the shooting sports ecosystem. The company is uniquely positioned to benefit from ammunition price normalization through both direct margin improvement in its ammunition segment and increased firearm sales as ammunition becomes more affordable, encouraging more frequent shooting and training. Smith & Wesson's vertically integrated business model allows it to capitalize on both sides of the market recovery, with its strong brand recognition driving consumer loyalty across product categories during this pricing inflection point. Read More →
RGR: Sturm, Ruger & Company Inc - As a pure-play firearms manufacturer with a debt-free balance sheet, Ruger stands to benefit significantly from the normalization of ammunition prices through increased firearm demand. When ammunition becomes more affordable, consumers typically increase their shooting activities, driving both new gun purchases and replacement cycles. Ruger's recent strategic product innovations, including versatile platforms like the RXM pistol and successful Marlin lever-action rifles, position the company to capture increased consumer spending as the ammunition price barrier to shooting sports participation decreases, directly supporting the pricing power recovery thesis. Read More →
Theme 2: EV Charging Infrastructure Gains Momentum from Wood Mackenzie's Bullish 12.3% Growth Forecast
The Wood Mackenzie forecast validates long-term business models across the charging ecosystem, particularly highlighting that the ratio of EVs to public chargers will improve from 7.5 vehicles per charger in 2025 to 14.2 in 2040. This utilization improvement directly addresses previous investor concerns about charging network economics and return on invested capital.
The U.S. market specifically is projected to outpace global growth, reaching 475,000 ports and generating $3.3 billion in annual market value by 2040. This domestic outperformance creates particular advantages for American-listed charging infrastructure companies.
Residential charging dominance continues with 133 million ports expected globally by 2040, representing two-thirds of all installations through 2050, supporting companies focused on Level 2 residential solutions alongside public fast-charging networks.
Stocks that would benefit:
EVGO: EVgo Inc - Positioned as a pure-play beneficiary of the improving EV charging economics highlighted in the Wood Mackenzie forecast, particularly the projected increase in the ratio of EVs to public chargers from 7.5 to 14.2 by 2040. EVgo's strategic focus on high-power DC fast charging in urban and suburban locations directly aligns with the projected 14% annual growth in the U.S. market. The company's recent non-dilutive financing, including a $1.25 billion DOE loan and $225 million commercial bank facility, provides the capital needed to expand its public stall count to approximately 14,000 by 2029, capturing significant market share during this growth phase. EVgo's joint development of next-generation charging architecture with Delta Electronics, targeting a 30% reduction in gross CapEx per stall, further enhances its ability to benefit from the projected market expansion. Read More →
BLNK: Blink Charging Co - Uniquely positioned to capitalize on both the residential and commercial charging expansion projected in the Wood Mackenzie report through its vertically integrated business model. The company's strategic shift toward a higher-margin, recurring service revenue model emphasizes ownership and operation of charging assets, particularly DC fast chargers, which aligns perfectly with the forecast's emphasis on improving utilization economics. Blink's proprietary network technology and vertical integration capabilities enable it to enhance operational performance and improve station economics as the market expands. The company's recent 35% year-over-year growth in charging service revenue demonstrates increasing utilization and network expansion, directly supporting the thesis that charging economics will improve as EV adoption accelerates. Read More →
CHPT: ChargePoint Holdings - Offers comprehensive charging solutions across residential, commercial, and fleet segments, making it a diversified play on the projected expansion across all charging environments. The company's software platform and hardware innovations are particularly well-positioned to benefit from the forecast's projection that residential charging will represent two-thirds of all installations through 2050. ChargePoint's strategic partnerships with companies like Eaton and General Motors accelerate product development and expand market reach, particularly for advanced energy management solutions like bidirectional charging. The company's record non-GAAP gross margin of 33% demonstrates improving economics that align with the Wood Mackenzie forecast's projection of better utilization rates and return on invested capital for charging infrastructure. Read More →
Join our Discord community to give feedback, request features, or ask questions about the newsletter or website.
https://discord.gg/yePwyWrwJBThe content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. We are not financial advisors. Consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. Any actions you take based on information from this site are solely at your own risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments may lose value and are not guaranteed.
Loading more newsletters...
