Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• Bunge Global SA, a venerable agribusiness player, is strategically transforming its global platform through targeted acquisitions and divestitures, most notably the pending Viterra merger, to enhance diversification and operational flexibility in increasingly volatile markets.
• The company is actively investing in technological advancements, including novel crops for lower-carbon fuels and blockchain for supply chain traceability, aiming to build competitive moats and meet growing customer demand for sustainable solutions.
• Despite facing headwinds from a more balanced supply/demand environment, lower commodity prices, and policy uncertainty impacting margins, particularly in North American refined oils and South American milling, Bunge delivered Q1 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.81, exceeding expectations due to pull-forward activity.
• Full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance is reaffirmed at approximately $7.75, reflecting expectations for lower overall segment results offset by more favorable corporate expenses, with performance heavily reliant on market conditions and forward curves.
• Robust liquidity, a manageable adjusted leverage ratio of 0.6x, and ongoing strategic capital expenditures ($1.5B-$1.7B in 2025) position Bunge to fund growth initiatives and return capital, though cash flow can be impacted by working capital swings tied to commodity prices and harvest cycles.

Setting the Scene: A Global Agribusiness Foundation

For over two centuries, Bunge Global SA has served as a critical link in the global food, feed, and fuel supply chain, connecting farmers who cultivate the land to consumers around the world. Operating within the complex agribusiness industry, Bunge has built a vast, integrated global platform spanning origination, processing, and distribution of agricultural commodities. This foundational strength allows the company to leverage its presence across diverse geographies and crops, aiming to provide essential products and solutions regardless of external market conditions.

The industry landscape is shaped by powerful, interconnected forces. A growing global population and increasing per capita consumption drive fundamental demand for agricultural products. Simultaneously, climate volatility introduces uncertainty into crop production, while evolving government policies, including tariffs and biofuel mandates, create dynamic trade flows and market structures. Amidst these trends, there is a rising demand for greater transparency and sustainability in supply chains, pushing companies to innovate and adapt. Bunge's overarching strategy centers on harnessing its global network, pursuing continuous operational improvement, optimizing its portfolio, and maintaining financial discipline to navigate these complexities and capture value across the agricultural value chain.

Within this competitive arena, Bunge operates alongside major players like Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Corteva (CTVA), and Ingredion (INGR). While ADM often holds a larger market share and demonstrates higher efficiency metrics in core processing, and Corteva leads in agricultural biotechnology, Bunge differentiates itself through its integrated approach and specific technological focuses aimed at addressing emerging market needs, particularly in renewable fuels and sustainable sourcing.

Cultivating Innovation: Technological Roots for Future Growth

Bunge is actively embedding technological differentiation into its operations and strategic partnerships, particularly in response to the growing demand for lower-carbon and sustainable agricultural products. A key initiative is its alliance with Repsol (REP), which recently incorporated intermediate novel crops like camelina and safflower into the production process for renewable fuels in Europe. This partnership leverages Bunge's processing capabilities to transform these crops into low-carbon intensity oils suitable for Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). This strategic move positions Bunge at the forefront of providing alternative, lower-carbon feedstocks, aligning with Europe's commitment to biofuels and creating new revenue streams by serving the decarbonization needs of the liquid fuel supply chain.

Further demonstrating its focus on agricultural innovation, Bunge is developing a winter canola program in the Southern U.S. Following a commercial pilot season with 5,000 acres planted, the company plans a significant increase to 35,000 acres for the next crop year. This program aims to provide farmers with additional income opportunities while contributing to the supply of lower-carbon intensity oils, directly addressing consumer demand for more sustainable energy sources.

In the realm of supply chain transparency, Bunge is testing a blockchain traceability platform for sustainable soy with partners like CP Foods (CPF.BK). This technology enables end-to-end tracing of deforestation-free soybean meal from its origin on the farm through processing and transportation to the final destination. This initiative enhances reliability and transparency, helping customers fulfill their sustainability commitments and potentially creating a competitive advantage in markets valuing verifiable sustainable sourcing. While specific quantifiable financial benefits (e.g., cost savings, premium pricing) for these technologies are not detailed, their strategic intent is clear: to build competitive moats, open new markets, and strengthen relationships with customers seeking sustainable solutions, thereby supporting long-term growth and market positioning.

Strategic Evolution and Operational Execution

Bunge's recent history is marked by significant strategic actions aimed at refining its portfolio and enhancing its global capabilities. The most prominent is the pending business combination with Viterra, a transformative step expected to create a premier global agribusiness solutions company. This acquisition, funded by a mix of stock and cash supported by acquisition financing and senior notes, is in the final stages of regulatory approval. The strategic rationale is clear: to enhance diversification across assets, geographies, and crops, providing greater optionality to serve customers and address global food security needs in an increasingly complex world.

Alongside this major transaction, Bunge has been active in optimizing its existing business. The company recently terminated its agreement to acquire CJ Selecta, an oilseed processor in Brazil, after regulatory approvals were not met by the agreed-upon deadline, though the market for soy protein concentrate remains attractive. Conversely, Bunge successfully acquired TGSC, a grain port terminal in South America, strengthening its logistical footprint in a key region.

Portfolio sharpening continues with announced divestitures. Bunge is selling its North America corn milling business and its European margarines and spreads business to align around core global value chains. These moves follow the completed sale of its interest in the BP Bunge Bioenergia joint venture, a non-core asset that streamlined operations and supported capital return. Furthermore, the partnership with Repsol, formalized by divesting a 40% stake in Bunge Iberica SA, underscores a strategic pivot towards developing lower-carbon intensity feedstocks. Operationally, the company highlights achievements like record U.S. soy crush performance and strong global rapeseed crushing volumes, reflecting the benefits of continuous improvement initiatives and investments in its facilities, such as the expansion of the multi-oil Avondale facility to boost specialty oils capacity in North America. These strategic and operational efforts collectively aim to position Bunge as a more focused, efficient, and adaptable player in the global agribusiness market.

Financial Performance and Capital Strength

Bunge's recent financial performance reflects the dynamic market environment and the impact of its strategic initiatives. In the first quarter of 2025, net income attributable to Bunge shareholders decreased to $201 million from $244 million in the prior year period. Total EBIT also saw a decline, falling to $328 million from $433 million year-over-year. This decrease was primarily driven by lower Segment EBIT, particularly a significant drop in the Refined and Specialty Oils segment EBIT to $116 million from $226 million, attributed to lower gross profit and margins in North America due to a more balanced supply and demand environment and U.S. biofuel policy uncertainty. The Milling segment also saw EBIT decline sharply to $18 million from $33 million, pressured by competitive pricing in South America. Agribusiness EBIT saw a more modest decrease to $270 million from $278 million, with lower merchandising results partially offset by favorable foreign exchange in processing. Corporate and Other EBIT improved, showing a loss of $76 million compared to $104 million, primarily due to lower acquisition and integration costs related to Viterra and reduced variable compensation expense.

Despite the overall decline in segment profitability, Q1 2025 results exceeded expectations, partly due to activity pulled forward from Q2 driven by trade and regulatory uncertainty. Interest income increased to $59 million from $42 million, benefiting from higher cash balances, while interest expense remained consistent at $104 million. Income tax expense decreased to $80 million from $117 million, mainly due to lower pre-tax income and the absence of prior year unfavorable foreign currency adjustments.

The company maintains a solid liquidity position. Working capital increased to $8,838 million at March 31, 2025, from $8,523 million at December 31, 2024, primarily driven by higher inventories ($7,817 million vs. $6,491 million) related to the South American harvest timing and increased volumes, partially offset by higher trade accounts payable. Cash and cash equivalents stood at $3,245 million. Total debt increased to $6,717 million from $6,238 million at year-end 2024, mainly due to higher short-term bank borrowings funding working capital needs. Bunge had $5,665 million in unused committed borrowing capacity and $5.80 billion available under its Acquisition Financing commitment as of March 31, 2025. Cash flow from operations was a use of $285 million in Q1 2025, a significant decrease from the $994 million provided in Q1 2024, reflecting funds used for inventory purchases. Cash provided by financing activities was $490 million, an increase from a use of $259 million in the prior year, benefiting from the absence of share repurchases and proceeds from debt and the BISA divestment. The company's trailing twelve-month adjusted ROIC was 9.4%, remaining above its adjusted weighted average cost of capital of 7.7%. This financial profile, characterized by robust liquidity and strategic capital allocation, supports ongoing investments and provides flexibility amidst market fluctuations.

Competitive Positioning and Market Dynamics

Bunge operates in a highly competitive global agribusiness market, where scale, efficiency, and market intelligence are paramount. Compared to larger rivals like ADM, Bunge holds a smaller market share but leverages its diversified global footprint and integrated supply chain to compete effectively. While ADM may exhibit higher efficiency in certain processing areas, Bunge's operational focus, including initiatives like the Bunge production system and targeted facility investments, aims to narrow this gap. The company's investments in U.S. export capacity for meal in both the PNW and the Gulf (Destrehan) are strategic moves to capitalize on the strong global meal market and absorb expected increases in U.S. production, directly challenging competitors for market share in export channels.

In the Refined and Specialty Oils segment, Bunge's portfolio, including its global specialty oils business and capabilities at facilities like Avondale, provides a differentiated offering compared to competitors focused solely on bulk refined oils. This allows Bunge to cater to diverse customer needs, from QSR to CPG, and benefit from specific market dynamics like tight cocoa butter supply. While refining margins have moderated from recent highs, Bunge's focus on resilient food industry demand and its potential to supply the biofuel sector as policy clarifies positions it to capture opportunities.

The Milling segment faces regional competitive pressures, particularly in South America wheat milling. Bunge's strategy here involves leveraging its integrated supply chain, including sourcing from Argentina and other global markets, and potentially combining its Brazilian wheat milling footprint with Viterra's assets post-merger to enhance its competitive stance.

Bunge's technological initiatives, such as novel crops for biofuels and blockchain traceability, represent efforts to build competitive moats beyond traditional scale and efficiency. These innovations address evolving customer demands for sustainability and lower-carbon solutions, potentially differentiating Bunge from rivals and securing preferential access or pricing in certain markets, although the long-term financial impact is yet to be fully realized. The company's ability to navigate volatile market conditions, including unpredictable farmer selling paces in South America and policy-driven shifts in biofuel demand, is underpinned by its flexible global platform and risk management strategies, which are critical capabilities in this competitive landscape.

Outlook, Guidance, and Risks

Looking ahead, Bunge has reaffirmed its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance at approximately $7.75. This outlook reflects expectations for a market environment characterized by more balanced supply and demand and less volatility compared to the elevated levels of recent years. The guidance incorporates current margin levels and forward curves, with management explicitly stating it does not assume future policy changes not already priced into the market.

At the segment level for 2025, Agribusiness results are forecasted to be slightly lower than the prior year, primarily due to expected lower processing results. Refined and Specialty Oils results are anticipated to be down from the prior year, driven by the more balanced supply and demand environment, particularly in North America. Milling results are expected to be up from last year. Corporate and Other expenses are projected to be more favorable than in the prior year. Other key guidance figures for 2025 include an adjusted annual effective tax rate in the range of 21% to 25%, net interest expense between $220 million and $250 million, capital expenditures in the range of $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion, and depreciation and amortization of approximately $490 million. The CapEx figure reflects continued investment in multi-year greenfield projects, with a significant drop-off expected in 2026 as these projects near completion.

Several risks could impact this outlook. Fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices, ocean freight costs, energy prices, and foreign exchange rates remain inherent to the business. Credit and counterparty risk, particularly in volatile markets, could lead to losses. The pace of farmer selling in key regions like South America can affect origination volumes and margins. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. biofuel policies (RVO, 45Z) could continue to pressure North American refined oil and crush margins. The successful consummation of the Viterra acquisition is subject to regulatory approvals, and failure to obtain these could result in termination fees and impact strategic plans. Furthermore, the company faces ongoing litigation and potential liabilities from indemnities related to past divestitures. Bunge employs various risk management strategies, including derivative instruments and a flexible global operating model, to mitigate these exposures, but they cannot be entirely eliminated.

Conclusion

Bunge Global SA is navigating a period of strategic transformation and market recalibration. Building on its two-century legacy and robust global platform, the company is actively shaping its future through significant portfolio optimization, highlighted by the pending Viterra merger and targeted divestitures. Simultaneously, Bunge is cultivating growth through technological innovation, investing in novel crops for the burgeoning lower-carbon fuel market and enhancing supply chain transparency with tools like blockchain.

While the current market environment, characterized by more balanced supply/demand and policy uncertainty, presents margin headwinds reflected in the 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of approximately $7.75, Bunge's underlying operational execution and strategic focus remain key strengths. The company's solid financial position, supported by adequate liquidity and a disciplined approach to capital allocation, provides the foundation to fund its multi-year growth projects and pursue value-enhancing initiatives. The ability to successfully integrate Viterra, realize the benefits of its technological advancements, and leverage its flexible global network to adapt to competitive dynamics and market volatility will be critical determinants of Bunge's long-term value creation potential for investors.