Carlyle Group has hired Goldman Sachs to advise on a bid for the overseas assets of sanctioned Russian oil company Lukoil, a package valued at roughly $22 billion. The deal is part of Lukoil’s divestiture of international holdings following new U.S. sanctions imposed in October 2025 that restrict the company’s ability to operate outside Russia.
The U.S. Treasury must approve the transaction, and the deadline for concluding talks is January 17 2026. The Treasury has already blocked two previous bidders—Gunvor and Xtellus Partners—highlighting the stringent regulatory scrutiny and geopolitical sensitivity surrounding the sale. Carlyle’s bid therefore faces significant approval hurdles and a tight timeline.
Carlyle’s decision to pursue the Lukoil assets reflects a broader strategy to expand its energy portfolio, even as the firm’s energy funds have underperformed in recent years. With $22.4 billion of its $22.4 billion energy portfolio in fossil fuels versus only $1.4 billion in renewables, the company is looking to deepen its footprint in the global oil and gas market while navigating the political risks associated with a sanctioned Russian firm.
Carlyle’s Q3 2025 financial results provide context for the bid. The firm reported record assets under management of $474 billion, but revenue fell 12.6% year‑over‑year to $782.5 million, missing analyst estimates of $987.3 million. Operating margin contracted to –4.8% from 87.8% a year earlier, a sharp decline attributed by CEO Harvey Schwartz to a quieter private‑equity exit environment and volatile public markets. Fee‑related earnings grew 12% YoY, underscoring the firm’s continued focus on its credit and secondary solutions segments.
The transaction’s regulatory and competitive landscape adds further complexity. The U.S. Treasury’s prior rejections of other bidders demonstrate the high level of scrutiny, while major oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron have also expressed interest. Carlyle’s engagement of Goldman Sachs—an M&A leader with a strong track record in cross‑border deals—signals confidence in navigating these hurdles, but the geopolitical risks and approval timeline remain significant headwinds.
If the U.S. Treasury grants approval, Carlyle could substantially increase its global energy footprint and potentially unlock new revenue streams. However, the sanctions environment, regulatory uncertainty, and the competitive field mean the outcome remains uncertain, and the deal could reshape Carlyle’s strategic positioning in the energy sector.
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