Ecopetrol reported third‑quarter 2025 revenue of COP 29.84 trillion, a 13.8% decline from the same period last year, but the figure surpassed the consensus estimate of COP 29.37 trillion, giving the company a revenue beat of roughly 1.5% in absolute terms. Net income reached COP 2.56 trillion, slightly below the FactSet estimate of COP 2.65 trillion, while earnings per share of $0.52 exceeded the consensus of $0.39, a $0.13 or 33% beat.
The revenue decline was driven by a 6.9 USD/bbl fall in the crude and product basket and a 19.7% drop in natural‑gas sales, reflecting lower global oil prices and reduced domestic gas demand. Despite these headwinds, the company’s production mix and higher volumes from key fields such as Caño Sur and CPO‑09 helped lift output, allowing revenue to stay above analyst expectations. The natural‑gas shortfall was partially offset by a modest increase in refined product sales, which benefited from a tighter refinery supply chain in Colombia.
EBITDA margin expanded to 41.3% from 40.4% in the same quarter last year, a 0.9 percentage‑point lift. The improvement came from disciplined cost controls, a stronger trading differential on crude purchases, and a higher proportion of high‑margin refined products. Even as revenue fell, the company’s ability to maintain pricing power and reduce variable costs allowed operating profitability to rise, underscoring operational resilience amid market volatility.
Operational highlights included 751 mboed of production, 1,118 mbd of transported volumes, and 429 mbd of refining throughput, the highest in four years. The La Iguana solar farm, which began operations in September 2025, added 26 MW of renewable capacity, marking a tangible step toward Ecopetrol’s energy‑transition agenda. These figures demonstrate that the company is executing on its strategy to diversify beyond hydrocarbons while sustaining core production levels.
Management emphasized a focus on reducing lifting costs to below $12 per barrel and maintaining a dividend payout of 40‑60% of profits. The 2025 investment plan is 72% complete, with an expectation of reaching 90% execution by year‑end, and a projected under‑execution of about 5%. The guidance signals confidence in continued operational efficiency and a commitment to capital discipline, even as the company navigates pricing and currency headwinds.
Investors responded positively to the results, citing the company’s operational resilience, margin expansion, and progress in renewable energy projects. The combination of a revenue beat, an EPS beat, and a clear guidance framework helped offset the net‑income miss and the year‑over‑year revenue decline, reinforcing confidence in Ecopetrol’s strategic direction.
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