ESTC - Fundamentals, Financials, History, and Analysis
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Elastic N.V. (ESTC) has emerged as a prominent player in the rapidly evolving world of data analytics and search, leveraging the power of artificial intelligence (AI) to revolutionize the way enterprises extract value from their information. As the company continues to expand its offerings and solidify its position in the market, it has captured the attention of investors and industry analysts alike.

Company History and Overview

Elastic N.V. was incorporated under the laws of the Netherlands in 2012 with the vision of creating a powerful set of software products that could ingest and store data from any source and in any format, while performing advanced search, analysis, and visualization. The company's flagship product, the Elastic Stack, has become a widely adopted platform for a variety of use cases, from enterprise search to security and observability.

Elastic offers three software solutions built into the Elastic Stack - Search, Observability, and Security. The company makes its platform available as a hosted, managed service across major cloud providers as well as for self-deployment across hybrid clouds, public or private clouds, and multi-cloud environments.

In its early years, Elastic pursued a strategy of providing access to source available software, both on a paid and free-of-charge basis, fostering a community of users and developers. This approach allowed the company to rapidly expand its user base and gain visibility among software developers worldwide. Over time, Elastic has continued to invest heavily in building new features and solutions that expand the capabilities of the Elastic Stack, including the introduction of advanced AI and machine learning functionality, as well as initiatives to make the platform more scalable and efficient for enterprises.

Despite its rapid growth, Elastic has faced some challenges. In fiscal year 2023, the company experienced a shortfall in customer commitments that impacted its sales execution. However, Elastic was able to address these issues and regain its strong sales momentum in subsequent quarters. The company has also had to navigate fluctuations in macroeconomic conditions and their impact on customer spending priorities.

Elastic's journey has been marked by impressive growth and technological advancements. In the fiscal year ended April 30, 2024, the company reported total revenue of $1.27 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase. This growth has been driven by the continued adoption of the Elastic Cloud, the company's hosted and managed cloud offering, which accounted for 43% of total revenue in fiscal 2024.

Financial Performance and Metrics

Financials

Elastic's financial performance has shown improvement in recent years, with the company reporting a net loss of $61.72 million in fiscal 2024, significantly reduced from the $236.16 million loss in fiscal 2023. The company has demonstrated strong growth in key metrics, such as annual recurring revenue (ARR), which reached $1.05 billion in fiscal 2024, up from $865.62 million in the prior year.

For the nine months ended January 31, 2025, Elastic reported total revenue of $1.09 billion, representing an 18% increase compared to the same period in the prior year. Subscription revenue, which accounted for 93% of total revenue, grew 18% year-over-year to $1.02 billion. The company's Elastic Cloud offering contributed 46% of total revenue during this period, up from 43% in the prior year.

In the most recent quarter (Q3 FY 2025), Elastic reported revenue of $382.08 million, up 17% year-over-year, with a net loss of $17.06 million. The company's gross margin has remained relatively stable, hovering around 74% in fiscal 2024, while its operating cash flow and free cash flow have shown signs of improvement, reaching $148.76 million and $145.31 million, respectively, in fiscal 2024.

Elastic's continued investments in research and development are evident, with R&D expenses increasing 9% year-over-year to $271.1 million, or 25% of total revenue, for the nine months ended January 31, 2025. Sales and marketing expenses grew 12% to $455.4 million during the same period, reflecting Elastic's efforts to expand its customer base and drive adoption of its solutions.

Liquidity

Elastic maintains a strong liquidity position, with $584.01 million in cash and cash equivalents as of January 31, 2025. The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at a low 0.02, indicating a conservative capital structure. Elastic's current ratio and quick ratio are both 2.02, suggesting the company has ample resources to meet its short-term obligations.

Elastic's customer base has also been expanding, with the number of customers with annual contract values (ACV) of more than $100,000 growing from 1,270 in fiscal 2024 to over 1,460 as of the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2025. The company's net expansion rate, a measure of customer retention and growth, stood at approximately 112% as of the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2025.

Transformation and Expansion into AI-Powered Search

Elastic's growth story has been closely tied to its ability to adapt to the evolving needs of its customers, particularly in the realm of artificial intelligence and machine learning. The company has made significant investments in developing its AI-powered search capabilities, including the introduction of its Elasticsearch Relevance Engine (ESRE) and the general availability of its Elastic Cloud Serverless offering.

The ESRE combines advanced AI with Elastic's text search capabilities, enabling developers to integrate sophisticated retrieval algorithms and large language models into their applications. This technology has been a key driver of Elastic's success in the generative AI (GenAI) market, where the company has seen strong traction, with over 1,750 Elastic Cloud customers using its platform for GenAI use cases.

Elastic's Serverless offering, on the other hand, has been designed to simplify the deployment and management of the Elastic Stack, making it easier for customers to access and leverage the company's search, observability, and security solutions. The introduction of this offering has been a strategic move to capture a larger share of the growing cloud-based data infrastructure market.

Product Portfolio

Elastic's product portfolio consists of three main solutions built on the Elastic Stack:

Search Solution

Elastic's Search solution allows developers and IT decision makers to power a variety of use cases with the Elastic Stack's search and analytics capabilities. The solution enables customers to find insights and drive AI and machine learning use cases from large amounts of data. Key features include real-time search, scalable analytics, and natural language processing.

Observability Solution

The Observability solution provides customers with the ability to monitor the health and performance of their applications, infrastructure, and user experience. It ingests and analyzes data from various sources, allowing organizations to detect, investigate, and resolve issues quickly. The solution includes components for application monitoring, infrastructure monitoring, and user experience monitoring.

Security Solution

Elastic's Security solution helps organizations protect against cyber threats by providing security analytics and security information and event management (SIEM) capabilities. The solution ingests data from multiple sources, applies machine learning for threat detection, and provides investigation and response tools. Key features include security analytics, threat hunting, and security automation.

Competitive Landscape and Risks

Elastic operates in a highly competitive market, facing off against established players like Splunk, Elasticsearch, and Kibana, as well as newer entrants like Confluent and MongoDB. The company's ability to maintain its competitive edge will depend on its continued innovation, its ability to expand its customer base, and its success in cross-selling its solutions to existing customers.

Additionally, Elastic faces risks related to its reliance on a small number of large customers, potential changes in cloud pricing and consumption models, and the broader macroeconomic environment, which could impact customer spending and demand for the company's offerings.

Industry Trends and Market Outlook

The data center market, which is closely related to Elastic's business, is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.7% between 2024 and 2032. This growth is primarily driven by the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and the increasing adoption of AI applications across various industries. Elastic's focus on AI-powered search and analytics positions the company well to capitalize on these trends.

Guidance and Future Outlook

Elastic has provided guidance for the upcoming quarter and fiscal year, demonstrating confidence in its growth trajectory. For Q4 FY2025, the company expects:

- Total revenue in the range of $379 million to $381 million, representing 13% year-over-year growth at the midpoint on an as-reported basis and 15% year-over-year growth at the midpoint in constant-currency. - Non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 13.5%. - Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share in the range of $0.36 to $0.37.

For the full fiscal year 2025, Elastic projects:

- Total revenue in the range of $1.474 billion to $1.476 billion, representing 16% year-over-year growth at the midpoint and 17% year-over-year growth at the midpoint in constant currency. - Non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 14.7%. - Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share in the range of $1.91 to $1.96.

Looking ahead to fiscal year 2026, Elastic plans to continue making investments across the business to drive revenue growth, with expectations of a modest expansion in non-GAAP operating margin relative to FY2025.

Conclusion

Despite the challenges, Elastic's long-term prospects appear promising. The company's focus on AI-powered search and its efforts to simplify the deployment and management of its platform through offerings like Serverless have positioned it well to capitalize on the growing demand for data analytics and search solutions.

As Elastic continues to navigate the evolving data analytics and search landscape, its ability to innovate, expand its customer base, and capitalize on the growing demand for AI-powered solutions will be critical to its long-term success. With strong financial performance, a robust product portfolio, and a clear focus on emerging technologies, Elastic is well-positioned to maintain its growth trajectory and strengthen its market position in the coming years. Investors will be watching closely to see how the company leverages its technological advantages and executes on its strategic initiatives in the years to come.

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