Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• NIM Expansion in Action: First Hawaiian is executing a clear margin recovery story, with net interest margin hitting 3.16% in September 2025 and management guiding for continued expansion into year-end, driven by deposit repricing that has lowered funding costs by 50 basis points year-over-year while asset yields stabilize.

• Disciplined Capital Allocation: With a CET1 ratio of 13.24% and a $100 million share repurchase authorization, the bank is balancing three priorities—organic loan growth, a stable 4.1% dividend yield, and opportunistic buybacks—demonstrating a mature approach to capital management in a low-growth environment.

• Hawaii's Double-Edged Sword: The bank's 167-year history and dominant #2 market position in Hawaii create a powerful deposit franchise with 93% core deposits, but this geographic concentration leaves it exposed to tourism volatility, federal spending decisions, and housing market softness that could pressure loan growth and credit quality.

• Credit Resilience Amid Macro Headwinds: Despite increased macroeconomic uncertainty, credit quality remains stable with non-performing assets at just 0.22% of loans, though a $30 million increase in classified assets from a single borrower in Q3 2025 serves as a reminder of concentration risk in a smaller market.

• Attractive Risk-Adjusted Returns: Trading at 12.3x earnings and 1.14x book value with a well-covered 4.1% dividend yield, FHB offers a compelling combination of income and capital appreciation potential, particularly for investors seeking exposure to a stable regional banking franchise with improving profitability metrics.

Setting the Scene: Hawaii's Banking Oligopoly

First Hawaiian, Inc. operates as the second-largest bank by deposits in Hawaii, a market defined by geographic isolation, limited competition, and deep customer relationships. Founded in 1858 as Bishop Company, it was the first successful banking partnership in the Kingdom of Hawaii and remains the second oldest bank formed west of the Mississippi River. This 167-year history translates into a deposit franchise that is remarkably sticky—93% of its $20.7 billion deposit base qualifies as core deposits, with 33% in noninterest-bearing accounts that provide a structural funding advantage.

The bank makes money through three segments: Retail Banking serves consumers and small businesses across 49 branches in Hawaii, Guam, and Saipan; Commercial Banking targets middle-market and large companies with C&I and CRE lending; and Treasury & Other manages the balance sheet and allocates capital. Net interest income represents the core earnings engine, supplemented by service charges, card fees, and BOLI income.

Hawaii's economy creates both opportunity and risk. Tourism drives commercial activity and residential real estate demand, while federal spending—particularly through the Indo-Pacific Command and Pearl Harbor naval shipyard—supports government and defense-related lending. However, this concentration means FHB is sensitive to external shocks: housing affordability challenges, changes in federal appropriations, and natural disasters like the 2023 Maui wildfires that led the bank to open a new Lahaina branch in September 2025 to rebuild community ties.

The 2016 IPO and preceding reorganization, when First Hawaiian distributed its interest in Bank of the West back to BNP Paribas (BNPQY), created a simplified Hawaii-focused franchise. More recently, the bank has navigated regulatory changes including the transition from LIBOR to SOFR in 2021 and the FDIC's special assessment in 2023 that cost $16.3 million to replenish the deposit insurance fund following regional bank failures.

Business Model and Strategic Differentiation

First Hawaiian's competitive moat rests on three pillars: local relationships, deposit funding, and operational efficiency. Unlike national banks that compete on price, FHB competes on trust and convenience. Its branch network provides physical presence that remains valued in Hawaii's community-oriented culture, while its long-standing customer relationships generate low-cost deposits that national competitors cannot easily replicate.

The bank's "technology" is its risk management and underwriting expertise developed over decades of lending in Hawaii's unique real estate and tourism markets. In July 2025, FHB launched a new mobile banking app, signaling recognition that digital capabilities matter even for relationship banking. However, the core product remains the balance sheet itself—the ability to gather deposits at rates below market and deploy them into loans with appropriate risk-adjusted returns.

This deposit advantage shows up in the numbers. The total cost of deposits fell to 2.08% in Q3 2025, down 50 basis points year-over-year, as rate-sensitive deposits repriced downward with Fed cuts. Management estimates a 90% beta on the next rate cut, meaning deposit costs will continue falling faster than asset yields, supporting margin expansion. This dynamic is structural: Hawaii's limited banking options give FHB pricing power on deposits that exceeds what most regional banks enjoy.

Financial Performance: Margin Recovery in Progress

Third quarter 2025 results provide clear evidence of the margin expansion thesis. Net interest income grew 8% year-over-year to $170.4 million, driving a 20% increase in net income to $73.8 million. The efficiency ratio improved to 55.29% from 59.77% a year ago, while return on assets climbed 20 basis points to 1.22% and return on equity rose 136 basis points to 10.81%.

The segment breakdown reveals the story's nuances. Retail Banking generated $66.6 million in net income, up 20.3% year-over-year, powered by a $9.1 million increase in net interest income from higher deposit and loan spreads plus a $2.6 million decrease in provision expense. This segment's $7.1 billion in earning assets represents the bank's most profitable franchise, with management noting "strong production in the pipeline" for Q4.

Commercial Banking, with $7.0 billion in earning assets, saw net income decline 6% to $34.6 million as net interest income fell $6.6 million due to lower loan and lease spreads. However, this compression was partially offset by a $2.9 million decrease in provision expense, and management remains optimistic about the pipeline, expecting to end 2025 "about flat to year-end 2024" for total loans despite Q3's $223 million decline driven by dealer flooring paydowns and corporate line reductions.

Treasury & Other reported a $27.3 million net loss, an improvement from the $30.6 million loss a year ago, as net interest expense declined $10.1 million from lower borrowing costs and higher transfer pricing credits. This segment houses the investment portfolio, which management is no longer allowing to run down, instead reinvesting cash flows to maintain balance sheet stability.

The Q4 2024 investment portfolio restructuring provides a tangible earnings tailwind. By selling $290 million of low-yielding securities and reinvesting at 309 basis points higher yield, FHB locked in an expected $8.6 million increase in 2025 net interest income and 4 basis points of NIM improvement. This proactive management demonstrates the bank's ability to optimize its balance sheet even in challenging rate environments.

Outlook and Management Guidance

Management's commentary frames 2025 as a year of margin expansion and disciplined growth. The NIM trajectory remains positive, with September's 3.16% run rate expected to advance "a few basis points" in Q4, supported by the investment portfolio restructuring and continued deposit repricing. James Moses, the CFO, outlined the underlying dynamics: $1 billion in securities cash flows will be reinvested at spreads 125-250 basis points higher than current yields, while loan growth at spreads in the "mid- to upper 6s" will replace runoff.

Loan growth expectations have moderated throughout the year, from low-to-mid single digits to "about flat to year-end 2024." This reflects headwinds from construction loan payoffs as projects complete and refinance with institutional investors rather than converting to mini-perm loans on FHB's balance sheet. While this pressure on growth is real, it also signals strong credit quality—borrowers are finding takeout financing, reducing the bank's risk.

Expense control remains a priority. Full-year 2025 expenses are now expected to come in below $506 million, better than original guidance of around $510 million. The bank completed its "big tech spend" in prior years, allowing for more modest investment in data analytics and operational efficiency without the large project costs that previously pressured the efficiency ratio.

Capital allocation priorities are clear: organic growth first, stable dividend second, share repurchases third. With $26 million remaining on the $100 million 2025 authorization, management is comfortable with CET1 at 13.24%, noting it's "a little bit higher than we had guided to in years past" but appropriate given the rotation from securities back into loans, which "can eat up the capital fairly quickly."

Risks: When Paradise Faces Headwinds

Hawaii's geographic concentration creates three material risks that could derail the margin expansion story. First, the tourism-dependent economy remains vulnerable to external shocks. While the state has recovered from pandemic lows, high consumer prices and housing affordability challenges persist. A federal government shutdown, which began October 1, 2025, directly impacts Hawaii's large civilian federal workforce, potentially curtailing spending and affecting loan demand.

Second, deposit pricing power has limits. While management expects a 90% beta on the next rate cut, they acknowledge this will "drive a little bit lower and it gets successively lower for each rate cut." As rates approach a floor, the margin expansion benefit from deposit repricing will diminish, requiring loan growth to sustain NIM improvement.

Third, credit quality, while currently stable, faces pressure points. The $30.1 million increase in classified assets in Q3 stemmed from a single borrower, which management described as "well secured." However, residential mortgage non-accruals have risen to $16.7 million across 56 loans, and management conceded that "the consumer at the lower end is getting a little stretched" as COVID-era savings dissipate. Commercial real estate non-accruals increased to $3.1 million from a single loan with a 62% LTV, but construction loan payoffs suggest developers are facing refinancing challenges.

The competitive landscape adds another layer of risk. Bank of Hawaii (BOH) maintains a larger market share and deeper wealth management capabilities, while national banks and fintechs increasingly encroach on digital banking. FHB's July 2025 mobile app launch helps, but the bank's technology spending is now "not on the scale that we've had in previous years," potentially leaving it vulnerable to more aggressive digital competitors.

Valuation Context

At $25.25 per share, First Hawaiian trades at 12.3x trailing earnings and 1.14x book value, offering a 4.1% dividend yield with a 50.7% payout ratio. These multiples appear reasonable for a bank generating a 9.6% return on equity and 1.08% return on assets while maintaining a conservative 13.24% CET1 ratio.

Peer comparisons provide context. Bank of Hawaii trades at 16.3x earnings and 1.83x book value with a 4.2% dividend yield and 10.7% ROE, reflecting its larger market share and wealth management franchise. Central Pacific Financial (CPF) trades at 12.6x earnings and 1.40x book with an 11.7% ROE but lacks FHB's scale and geographic diversification. Territorial Bancorp (TBNK) trades at a discount but generates negative returns, highlighting the value of FHB's operational efficiency.

Cash flow metrics support the valuation. Price-to-operating cash flow of 9.15x and price-to-free cash flow of 10.29x indicate the market is pricing FHB as a stable, cash-generative franchise rather than a growth story. The enterprise value of $1.29 billion represents 1.59x revenue, consistent with regional banks of similar size and profitability.

The key valuation question is whether margin expansion can offset the lack of loan growth. If NIM reaches management's implied target of 3.20%+ by year-end and the investment portfolio restructuring delivers its $8.6 million benefit, earnings could support a higher multiple. Conversely, if credit costs rise or deposit betas fall faster than expected, the 12.3x P/E could prove generous.

Conclusion

First Hawaiian represents a classic regional banking story where operational excellence and disciplined capital allocation create value in a low-growth market. The bank's 167-year history and #2 position in Hawaii provide a defensible deposit franchise that is delivering tangible margin expansion, with NIM improvement driving a 20% increase in quarterly earnings despite flat loan growth.

The investment thesis hinges on two variables: the durability of deposit repricing benefits and the bank's ability to maintain credit quality amid macro headwinds. Management's guidance suggests NIM expansion continues into 2026, while the conservative 1.17% allowance coverage and stable non-performing asset ratios indicate credit remains well-controlled.

For income-oriented investors, the 4.1% dividend yield combined with a $100 million buyback program offers attractive capital returns. For value investors, the 1.14x book value multiple provides downside protection while the margin expansion story offers upside optionality. The primary risk remains Hawaii's economic concentration, but FHB's strong capital position and relationship-based model provide resilience that national banks cannot replicate.

The story is not about rapid growth but about extracting more profit from a stable franchise while returning excess capital to shareholders—a strategy that appears well-executed and reasonably valued at current levels.