Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMA) demonstrates robust operational and financial performance, with Q2 2025 passenger traffic increasing 11% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA growing 19% to MXN 2.6 billion, driven by strong domestic and international demand, particularly at Monterrey Airport.
• The company's strategic diversification into commercial activities, industrial parks, and hotel services is a significant growth driver, with commercial revenue per passenger rising to MXN 62 in Q2 2025 and industrial services showing over 100% growth, capitalizing on Mexico's near-shoring trend.
• OMA is advancing a disciplined 2026-2030 Master Development Program (MDP), allocating approximately 49% of its committed investment to Monterrey Airport for capacity optimization and technology upgrades, anticipating a low single-digit real increase in maximum tariffs.
• Management projects mid-to-high single-digit traffic growth for the remainder of 2025, with a significant uplift in commercial revenue per passenger expected in 2026 as new Monterrey spaces open, underscoring a positive long-term outlook despite airline capacity volatility.
• The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1x and a consistent dividend policy, signaling a commitment to shareholder returns amidst strategic investments.

A Gateway to Growth: OMA's Position in Mexico's Aviation Landscape

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. (OMA), operating under the ticker GAERF, stands as a pivotal player in Mexico's aviation infrastructure. The company manages 13 international airports across nine states in central and northern Mexico, including the critical hub of Monterrey and popular tourist destinations such as Acapulco, Mazatlán, and Zihuatanejo. Since December 2022, OMA has been part of VINCI Airports , a global leader in private airport operations, a partnership that has significantly shaped OMA's strategic direction, particularly in commercial and capital expenditure initiatives. This strategic alliance underpins OMA's overarching goal to enhance efficiency, optimize operations, and maintain high standards of safety and service quality across its network.

The Mexican aviation sector, and by extension OMA, is influenced by several broad industry trends and market drivers. The near-shoring phenomenon, where companies relocate production closer to North American markets, is a significant tailwind, particularly benefiting industrial activity in regions like Monterrey. This trend directly fuels demand for OMA's cargo and industrial park services. Furthermore, the recovery and expansion of air travel, both domestically and internationally, continue to drive passenger traffic. The lifting of Category 1 status restrictions for Mexican carriers in late 2023, for instance, enabled airlines to strengthen international networks, especially to the U.S., a market that accounts for approximately 88% of OMA's international traffic.

OMA's competitive landscape in Mexico primarily includes other publicly traded airport operators like Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (PAC) and Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASUR). While PAC often demonstrates strong revenue growth from its tourism-centric locations and ASUR benefits from high-traffic international hubs like Cancún, OMA differentiates itself through a diversified business model that extends beyond core aeronautical services. OMA's unique value proposition lies in its integrated approach, which includes hotel operations and industrial park development, allowing it to capitalize on broader economic trends like near-shoring more directly than some peers. This diversification provides a balanced market positioning and potentially greater operational resilience.

In terms of operational technology, OMA focuses on continuous upgrades across its airport network to enhance efficiency and optimize the passenger experience. These technological advancements are integral to the company's strategic initiatives, particularly within its Master Development Programs. For instance, planned technology upgrades under the upcoming 2026-2030 MDP are designed to process passengers more efficiently and provide a better experience. While specific quantifiable metrics for these technologies are not publicly detailed, the strategic intent is clear: to leverage modern systems for streamlined operations, improved safety, and enhanced service quality, thereby strengthening OMA's competitive moat by making its airports more attractive and efficient for both airlines and passengers. This ongoing commitment to operational technology is a foundational strength, contributing to OMA's ability to manage high traffic volumes and support its long-term growth strategy.

Strategic Evolution and Robust Performance

OMA's journey through 2024 and into 2025 highlights its strategic adaptability. The year 2024 presented significant challenges, including aircraft capacity constraints due to the Pratt & Whitney (RTX) engine inspection program, which impacted major airline partners VivaAerobus and Volaris (VLRS), collectively accounting for 71% of OMA's passenger traffic. Operational restrictions at the Mexico City International Airport further complicated the industry landscape. Despite these headwinds, OMA demonstrated resilience. Airlines responded by strengthening international networks and launching new routes from OMA's airports to the U.S. Demand for flights to the Mexico City metropolitan area, including the AIFA and Toluca airports, also remained robust, growing by 8.18% in 2024.

The company's strategic initiatives have translated into strong financial performance. In the second quarter of 2025, OMA reported a significant 11% increase in passenger traffic year-over-year, reaching 7.2 million passengers. Domestic traffic grew by 10%, while international traffic surged by 19%. This growth was notably driven by Monterrey Airport, which saw increases on key domestic routes to Mexico City's metropolitan area and international routes to major U.S. cities like Los Angeles and Miami. Aeronautical revenues in Q2 2025 increased 17%, with aeronautical revenue per passenger rising 5%.

Beyond aeronautical services, OMA's diversification strategy is proving highly effective. Commercial revenues exhibited a strong 20% growth in Q2 2025, with commercial revenue per passenger increasing 8% to MXN 62. This was primarily fueled by strong performance in restaurants, parking, VIP lounges, and retail, with the occupancy rate for commercial space standing at 96%. Diversification revenues increased 11% in Q2 2025, largely driven by industrial services, which grew over 100% due to an increase in leased square meters. This segment is directly benefiting from the near-shoring trend, with OMA actively expanding its industrial park and cargo warehouse capacity by almost 50% to capitalize on these opportunities. Hotel services also contributed, with revenues increasing 4% year-over-year to MXN 112 million, driven by higher average room rates.

Financially, OMA maintains a robust position. The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 increased 19% to MXN 2.6 billion, achieving an impressive adjusted EBITDA margin of 74.6%. Consolidated net income for the quarter was MXN 1.3 billion, a 3.8% increase over Q2 2024. For the full year 2024, adjusted EBITDA stood at Ps. 9.1 billion, with a margin of 74.3%.

The company's liquidity is strong, with cash generated from operating activities amounting to MXN 1.8 billion in Q2 2025, and a cash position of MXN 3.4 billion at quarter-end.

Total debt was MXN 13.6 billion, resulting in a healthy net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1x. In June 2025, OMA successfully issued MXN 2.75 billion in long-term notes to repay short-term loans and fund committed investments, further solidifying its capital structure.

Strategic Initiatives and Forward Outlook

OMA's strategic roadmap is clearly defined by its ongoing Master Development Program (MDP) negotiations and its focus on enhancing non-aeronautical activities. The company submitted its proposed 2026-2030 MDP to Mexico's Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC) by the end of June 2025. The total committed investment under this new MDP is similar in real peso terms to the previous program, with approximately 49% allocated to the Monterrey Airport. Key projects in Monterrey include the third phase expansion of Terminal A, pavement reconfigurations like platform expansions and fast taxiways, and technology upgrades across the airport network. These investments are designed to optimize capacity, enhance passenger experience, and drive long-term value creation. Final approval of the MDP and a new maximum tariff, anticipated to be a low single-digit increase in real terms, is expected in early December 2025.

Management's outlook for the remainder of 2025 remains positive yet cautious. OMA anticipates mid-to-high single-digit traffic growth for the second half of the year, acknowledging that some of the strong growth seen in the first half may moderate due to reduced capacity announcements from certain airlines and tougher year-over-year comparisons. Monterrey is expected to continue as the primary driver of growth, benefiting from strong economic performance in the region. For commercial revenues, OMA expects performance similar to Q1 2025 in the near term, with a "huge pickup" anticipated in 2026 as new commercial spaces in Monterrey become operational. This aligns with the company's strategy to grow extra aeronautical activities, a focus reinforced by the appointment of Pierre Grosmaire as Chief Commercial Officer, bringing extensive experience from Lyon Airports and VINCI Airports (VCISY).

Despite the positive outlook, OMA acknowledges several risks. The airline capacity situation remains volatile, with some low-cost carriers announcing capacity cuts. The company is also closely monitoring the broader macro landscape and any measures taken by the U.S. DOT that could impact passenger growth. While the concession tax rate increased from 5% to 9% in Q4 2024, OMA has a mechanism to recover the 4% surplus over aeronautical revenues through maximum tariffs starting January 2026, mitigating some of this impact.

OMA's competitive positioning is further strengthened by its commitment to sustainability, with all 13 airports having obtained Level 3 Optimization Certification on the Airport Carbon Accreditation Program. This underscores its leadership in sustainable airport management and its dedication to reducing carbon emissions across the value chain.

Conclusion

OMA stands as a compelling investment proposition within the Mexican airport sector, demonstrating a robust blend of operational excellence, strategic diversification, and disciplined capital allocation. The company's strong financial performance in Q2 2025, marked by significant passenger traffic growth and impressive EBITDA margins, reflects effective execution against a backdrop of evolving market dynamics. The ongoing Master Development Program, with its substantial investment in Monterrey and a focus on operational efficiency and technology upgrades, is poised to unlock further long-term value.

OMA's strategic emphasis on non-aeronautical revenues, particularly through its industrial parks and cargo operations, positions it to capitalize on the powerful near-shoring trend, providing a resilient and diversified revenue base that distinguishes it from some competitors. While the company remains vigilant regarding airline capacity fluctuations and broader macroeconomic factors, its clear guidance for continued traffic growth and anticipated commercial revenue expansion, coupled with a strong balance sheet and consistent dividend policy, reinforces its investment thesis. OMA's commitment to enhancing passenger experience and operational efficiency through strategic investments and technological advancements, alongside its strong competitive standing in key regions, suggests a promising trajectory for sustained growth and shareholder returns.