Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• Graham Corporation has executed a strategic pivot from a cyclical commercial equipment manufacturer to a mission-critical defense technology partner, with defense revenue growing 32% in Q2 FY26 to represent 60% of the portfolio and 85% of a record $500 million backlog, creating multi-year revenue visibility.
• The margin inflection story is backed by capex investments targeting over 20% ROIC that will increase capacity and efficiency: a new 30,000 sq ft defense facility (operational by FY26 end), cryogenic test capabilities in Florida and Colorado, and an AI-driven aftermarket platform will drive EBITDA margins from 10.7% toward low-to-mid teens by FY27.
• Defense contracts now include commodity price protection clauses and sole-source positions on Virginia-class and Columbia-class submarine programs, providing pricing power and margin stability rare for sub-tier suppliers and insulating earnings from inflationary pressures.
• Energy Process faces headwinds from traditional energy transition, with capital investment shifting to India and Middle East, while the small but promising Space segment booked $22 million in new turbomachinery orders that will convert over 12-24 months, diversifying growth beyond defense.
• Trading at 34.8x EV/EBITDA with a path to 12% EBITDA margins, the stock embeds execution risk around capex timing and defense budget stability, though 20%+ ROIC projects, phasing out of BN earnout expenses, and a 40% revenue conversion from backlog within 12 months support the FY27 targets.

Setting the Scene: From Commodity Equipment to Mission-Critical Systems

Graham Corporation, founded in 1936 in Batavia, New York, spent decades building fluid, power, heat transfer, and vacuum technologies for industrial markets. For most of its history, the business operated as a cyclical supplier to commercial energy and process industries, subject to volatile capital spending and commodity-driven demand swings. That identity fundamentally changed in fiscal 2022 when management introduced a five-year strategic vision focused on stabilization, improvement, and growth. The "stabilize" phase addressed a deteriorating foundation that had driven adjusted EBITDA margins to -3.4% while revenue stagnated near $97.5 million. The solution was a deliberate portfolio rebalancing, shifting from 75% commercial and 25% defense to a more stable 40% commercial and 60% defense mix by fiscal 2025. This matters because defense contracts offer longer cycles, sole-source positioning, and mission-critical specifications that create stickier customer relationships and more predictable cash flows. The transformation tripled backlog from $138 million to $412 million, and by Q2 FY26, backlog reached a record $500 million, with defense representing 85% of that total.

The company now operates through three strategic pillars. The Defense segment, anchored by the Barber-Nichols division, designs and manufactures mission-critical turbomachinery for nuclear and non-nuclear propulsion systems, thermal management, and fluid transfer for the U.S. Navy. The Energy Process segment supplies vacuum and heat transfer equipment for traditional refining, chemical processing, and emerging clean energy applications like hydrogen, small modular reactors (SMRs), and geothermal. The Space segment, led by Barber-Nichols and the recently acquired P3 Technologies, provides turbomachinery and cryogenic systems for commercial launch providers and aerospace power systems. This segmentation matters because each operates in distinct competitive environments: Defense offers sole-source monopolies, Energy Process faces global competition from lower-cost manufacturers, and Space requires cutting-edge innovation for niche applications. The strategic portfolio shift toward defense reduces cyclicality while increasing margin potential, directly addressing the volatility that plagued the pre-2022 business model.

In the industrial equipment value chain, Graham sits upstream of prime contractors and system integrators, providing specialized components that must meet exacting military and aerospace specifications. Unlike commodity equipment suppliers competing on cost, Graham’s defense position is built on decades of Navy relationships and proprietary engineering that translates to sole-source supply for critical submarine programs. The company’s manufacturing capabilities span customized fabrication, precision machining, and advanced testing infrastructure that few competitors can replicate for the same cost structure. This positioning creates a moat reinforced by stringent ITAR compliance , nuclear quality standards, and the Navy’s reluctance to qualify new suppliers for mission-critical systems, effectively granting Graham a time-to-market and qualification advantage that exceeds five years for new entrants.

Technology, Products, and Strategic Differentiation

Graham’s competitive edge rests on proprietary vacuum and heat transfer technologies refined over 88 years. The Defense segment’s turbomachinery operates in extreme environments—underwater propulsion systems, nuclear thermal management, cryogenic fluid transfer—where failure is not an option. This performance creates switching costs that transcend price. When the Navy specifies Graham’s equipment for Virginia-class submarines, it commits to decades of spare parts, service, and engineering support, locking in a revenue annuity. The technology matters because it commands sole-source positioning, eliminating competitive bidding pressure and supporting pricing power. In Q2 FY26, defense sales surged 32% to $40.8 million, driven by timing of project milestones, new programs, and growth in existing Navy contracts. This acceleration reflects increasing demand urgency as shipyards race to meet accelerated submarine build schedules, a strategic tailwind Graham is uniquely positioned to capture.

The company’s innovation pipeline extends beyond legacy hardware. The "Next-Gen nozzle" for vacuum distillation towers represents a potential $50 million market opportunity over the next 5-10 years, reducing steam consumption by up to 10% or increasing throughput. While the addressable market is modest, the technology demonstrates Graham’s ability to engineer discrete improvements that create aftermarket upgrade cycles and pull-through equipment sales. In the Space segment, management’s investment in cryogenic test capabilities—a Florida facility for liquid hydrogen, oxygen, and methane testing expected online by Q3 FY26—targets a gap in the market. Most high-power testing occurs at NASA facilities with limited capacity and availability; Graham’s commercial alternative with high three-phase power capability addresses the electrification trend in propulsion testing, generating "incredible interest" from customers. This matters because it diversifies Space revenue beyond lumpy equipment sales into recurring test services, smoothing the segment’s historically volatile performance.

The October 2025 acquisition of Xdot Bearing Technologies strengthens the strategic differentiation of Barber-Nichols’ turbomachinery. Xdot’s patented foil bearing designs deliver superior performance while reducing development and production costs for high-speed rotating equipment. When combined with Barber-Nichols’ capabilities, Graham can now offer integrated systems that disrupt traditional bearing architectures in applications ranging from aerospace to energy transition. This acquisition is expected to be slightly accretive to fiscal 2026 GAAP net income with roughly $1 million annual revenue, but its real value lies in expanding addressable markets for high-speed pumps and compressors where foil bearings materially improve reliability and efficiency. The $2.8 million contribution from the P3 Technologies acquisition in fiscal 2025 validates a tuck-in strategy that adds engineering talent and customer access without diluting focus.

Defense manufacturing enhancements further entrench competitive advantages. A $13.5 million strategic grant from a key defense customer funded 95% of the new $14.2 million Batavia facility, which will be fully operational by end of fiscal 2026, doubling throughput capacity for Navy programs. Additionally, a $2.2 million grant partially funded $3.6 million in advanced X-ray testing equipment that simplifies weld evaluation and ensures precise rework, reducing scrap rates and improving margins. These investments target operational efficiency improvements that directly support the low-to-mid-teens EBITDA margin target for FY27, while the customer-funded nature of most capex reduces balance sheet risk and signals partner confidence in Graham’s strategic importance.

Financial Performance & Segment Dynamics

Consolidated net sales rose 23% to $66.0 million in Q2 FY26, accelerating from 19% growth in Q1. The composition reveals a strategic inflection: Defense growth of 32% to $40.8 million reflects execution on long-cycle submarine and torpedo programs, while Energy Process grew 11% to $21.3 million, masking underlying regional divergence. Sales in China increased, supported by the "China for China" localization strategy, while India sales declined due to project timing—despite management’s "nationalistic approach" to using India as a hub for Middle East and global market penetration. This divergence matters because it shows revenue is being pulled forward by defense, while commercial energy remains opportunistic and geographically fragmented. The 11% growth in Energy Process during a period of energy transition uncertainty indicates the segment’s replacement parts and upgrade business provides stability, but capital project volatility will persist.

Gross profit rose 12% to $14.3 million in Q2, yet gross margin compressed 220 basis points to 21.7%. This decline is not structural degradation but a timing artifact driven by an unusually high level of material receipts which carry lower profit margins. Defense contracts often have milestone-based revenue recognition tied to material delivery, and the concentration of receipts in the quarter shifted mix away from higher-margin engineering and fabrication work. The gross margin of 24.9% on a TTM basis remains healthy and is expected to recover as the project mix normalizes. Management estimates a $2 million to $4 million annual tariff impact, but has negotiated contract clauses that protect the business from commodity price volatility—an important distinction that mitigates a key margin risk faced by industrial peers. This is why the Q2 margin decline does not threaten the FY2026 gross margin guidance of 24.5% to 25.5% of sales.

SG&A expenses increased $1.1 million in Q2 as the company invests in operations, employees, performance-based compensation, and ERP implementation. However, SG&A as a percentage of sales declined 160 basis points to 15.5%, demonstrating operational leverage even as the business scales infrastructure. The ERP system implementation in Batavia—expected online by calendar year-end—will streamline workflows and improve transactional efficiency, reducing overhead absorption over time. Full-year SG&A guidance of 17.5% to 18.5% of sales includes $6 million to $7 million for the Barber-Nichols performance bonus, ERP costs, and equity compensation. The key insight is that many SG&A investments are discrete, with the BN earnout phasing out by FY27, creating a clear path to margin expansion as these one-time costs roll off.

The balance sheet provides strategic flexibility for the growth phase. At September 30, 2025, Graham had zero debt outstanding and $44.7 million available on its $50 million revolving credit facility, with leverage ratios well below covenant limits (0.3x vs. 3.5x limit). Operating cash flow for the first six months of fiscal 2026 was $11.3 million, largely offset by $11.1 million in capex as the company invests in growth capacity. Free cash flow turned positive in Q2 at $9.4 million quarterly versus -$5.4 million annual FCF, indicating the working capital intensity of the growth investment phase is moderating. With maintenance capex needing only $2 million annually, the $15 to $18 million fiscal 2026 investment is predominantly growth capital that should generate returns exceeding 20%, making the cash burn a calculated reinvestment rather than operational weakness.

Outlook, Management Guidance, and Execution Risk

Management affirmed full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, signaling confidence that strong first-half performance aligns with the internal plan. Revenue guidance of $225 to $235 million implies 9% growth at the midpoint, supported by record backlog and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.3x in Q2. The third quarter is typically the lowest revenue period due to holidays and vacation, a seasonal pattern investors should expect, though defense milestone timing can partially offset traditional seasonality. The midpoint of EBITDA guidance ($22 to $28 million) represents 12% growth, but the trajectory steepens in FY27 as growth investments mature. The reaffirmed targets reflect a management team tracking to plan while acknowledging that 20%+ ROIC projects coming online in the next two quarters—cryogenic testing, Batavia facility ramp, advanced inspection equipment—will catalyze the transition from "improve" to "growth" phase.

Looking to fiscal 2027, management targets 8% to 10% average annualized organic revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margins in the low-to-mid teens. This implies margin expansion of 200-400 basis points from current 10.7% levels, driven by four factors: (1) phasing out of $6-7 million in SG&A costs related to BN earnout, ERP, and conversion expenses; (2) operational leverage from defense volume scaling through the new Batavia facility; (3) pricing discipline in sole-source defense contracts; and (4) initial contribution from recurring test services in Space. The implied FY27 EBITDA of roughly $28 to $32 million on $245 to $260 million revenue suggests operating leverage begins to materialize, though execution on capex timing remains critical. If the Batavia facility is not fully operational by Q1 FY27 as planned, defense revenue conversion could slip, delaying margin ramp.

Key execution swing factors center on capacity ramp and defense budget execution. The Batavia facility commissioning requires hiring and training welders, a constraint management is proactively addressing through a "tremendous success" training program that increased welder count 10% year-over-year. The Florida cryogenic test facility must come online by mid-calendar 2025 to capture Space customer demand, evidenced by $22 million in new orders from six industry-leading customers in recent months. Most importantly, the defense budget environment must support the projected build schedules for Virginia-class and Columbia-class submarines—these are multi-decade programs, but any Continuing Resolution or budget sequestration could delay specific P-8 and high-value defense projects that CEO Matt Malone noted have been "slow to get up and moving." While the Navy has explicitly told management "don't get sidetrack by the noise," investors must monitor actual purchase order timing.

The Space segment’s lumpy order pattern presents execution risk. While Barber-Nichols booked $22 million in new turbomachinery orders, Space sales remain flat at $8 million year-to-date, representing only 5% of backlog. The segment serves customers still achieving profitability, introducing uncertainty about payment terms and growth sustainability. However, the Florida and Colorado test facilities diversify revenue from pure equipment sales into recurring test services, a strategic shift similar to Defense’s aftermarket strategy. If Space can mature into a 10-15% revenue contributor with more predictable conversion cycles, it would meaningfully de-risk the growth profile and validate Graham’s position as a full-lifecycle aerospace partner.

Risks and Asymmetries

The central thesis faces a concentration risk that is both a strength and vulnerability. Defense represents 85% of backlog and 60% of forward revenue. While this provides visibility and sole-source pricing power, it creates dependency on U.S. Navy shipbuilding schedules. The Columbia-class submarine program, critical to the nuclear triad modernization, is politically protected, but execution delays at prime contractor General Dynamics (GD) Electric Boat have historically cascaded to component suppliers. Matt Malone’s comment that appropriations have been "slow to issue" indicates that even strategic programs face bureaucratic friction. A prolonged Continuing Resolution or defense budget cut would not cancel programs but could stretch conversion cycles from three years to five years, pressing FY27 revenue targets. The asymmetry lies in the Navy’s explicit guidance: keep equipment coming; the risk is timing, not cancellation.

Energy Process transition risk remains underappreciated in the bull case. Traditional refining and chemical infrastructure investment is slowing in the U.S., with management noting "lower project quantities and challenging new project pricing" and forecasting orders primarily from India and Middle East. Graham’s $10-15 million China revenue exposure faces geopolitical risk, though the "China for China" strategy localizes operations and reduces tariff exposure. A deeper downturn in global chemical or refining capex could offset defense growth, preventing the company from achieving its 8-10% organic revenue growth target. The upside asymmetry emerges from SMR and hydrogen opportunity: rising energy demand from AI data centers and cryptocurrency mining is driving utility interest in SMRs, where Graham supplies helium circulators and molten salt pumps. The market is nascent but inquiries are increasing, offering a potential revenue tailwind by FY28.

Execution risk on the 20%+ ROIC capex spending is tangible. The company projects $15-18 million in fiscal 2026 capex, representing 6.5% to 8% of sales—well above maintenance levels. While customer grants funded most of the Batavia and advanced inspection equipment, Graham still contributed $1.4 million to X-ray systems and is building Florida test facilities internally. Actual returns depend on volume ramp: if defense or Space orders disappoint, capacity utilization will lag, compressing returns and extending payback periods. However, the book-to-bill ratio of 1.3x, backlog growth of 23% YoY, and explicit Navy demand for faster equipment delivery suggest demand will absorb new capacity. The risk/reward asymmetry is favorable: downside is sunk capex and margin pressure, but upside is 200-300 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion.

Supply chain and labor constraints, while mitigated, still pose margin risk. The welder training program’s success is encouraging, but defense manufacturing requires specialized certifications that limit the labor pool. Tariff impacts of $2-4 million annually are projected, but management has sourced over 50% of content from suppliers with Section 301 tariff exclusions and negotiated contract clauses allowing early material purchases to lock pricing. The risk is that these clauses may compress gross margins on delayed programs, as material is purchased but revenue recognized later without price escalation. The mitigation is the shift to defense contracts where cost-plus structures or inflation adjustments are now standard.

Valuation Context

At $55.66 per share, Graham Corporation trades at 34.8x EV/EBITDA and 44.7x trailing earnings, metrics that appear elevated against industrial peers. However, the appropriate comparison frame is a defense technology supplier at an inflection point, not a mature industrial. Babcock & Wilcox (BW) trades at a negative EV/EBITDA and negative P/E due to restructuring losses, reflecting its challenged turnaround status. Energy Recovery (ERII) commands a premium 25.5x EV/EBITDA with double-digit EBITDA margins but lacks defense exposure, trading on its desalination niche. Crane Company (CR) trades at 21.4x EV/EBITDA with 20%+ EBITDA margins, representing mature industrial diversification. Thermon Group (THR) trades at 10.9x EV/EBITDA, reflecting its industrial market cyclicality.

Graham’s 2.7x price-to-sales ratio sits below ERII (5.5x) and CR (4.6x) but above THR (2.2x), reflecting the market’s recognition of defense quality but skepticism of energy transition cyclicality. The key valuation driver is the margin expansion trajectory: if Graham achieves FY27 low-to-mid-teen EBITDA margins on $250 million revenue, EBITDA would approach $30-38 million, reducing EV/EBITDA to 16-20x—much more attractive. The 0.5% free cash flow yield reflects the growth investment phase, not fundamental cash generation problems. With TTM operating cash flow of $24.3 million, negative FCF of -$5.4 million is driven by growth capex that targets >20% returns.

Balance sheet strength supports valuation premium. The company carries virtually no net debt (Debt/EBITDA of 0.05x), has $44.7 million of untapped revolver capacity, and maintains a current ratio of 1.05x. This provides acquisition capacity for additional technology tuck-ins like Xdot and a buffer if defense programs face delays. The tangible book value of $9.29 per share versus the market price reflects goodwill from acquisitions (Barber-Nichols, P3, Xdot), but the underlying asset base—defense-qualified manufacturing facilities, patented turbomachinery designs, and Navy certifications—carries replacement value far exceeding book. The enterprise value of $600 million implies the market values the defense franchise at roughly 1.2x revenue, comparable to other niche defense component suppliers at acquisition, while effectively assigning zero value to Energy Process and Space upside.

Conclusion

Graham Corporation has successfully engineered a strategic transformation that converted a low-margin, cyclical industrial equipment business into a defense technology franchise with sole-source positioning, multi-year backlog visibility, and a clear path to margin expansion. The 23% year-over-year second quarter revenue growth, led by 32% defense acceleration, demonstrates the demand pull from accelerated Navy submarine builds and mission-critical torpedo programs. While the 220 basis point Q2 gross margin compression raises near-term questions, the timing-driven nature of the dip, coupled with negotiated commodity price protections and defense contract escalation clauses, makes this a temporary artifact rather than structural deterioration.

The investment thesis hinges on successful execution of the 20%+ ROIC growth investments coming online in Q3 FY26 through FY27. The Navy-funded Batavia facility, Florida cryogenic test center, and advanced inspection equipment will enable the defense segment to double throughput, capture sole-source follow-on orders, and expand into Space test services. If operational milestones are met, FY27 EBITDA margin targets of low-to-mid teens are achievable, representing 200-plus basis points of expansion. The competitive moats—proprietary vacuum technology, 88-year Navy relationships, and NQA-1 nuclear quality certifications —defend pricing power and limit competitive pressure, while the 85% defense backlog concentration provides revenue predictability uncommon in industrial names.

Key monitoring points include defense PO timing on accelerated submarine schedules, Space segment order conversion rates at the Florida test facility, and Energy Process pricing discipline amid traditional energy headwinds. The asymmetry is favorable: upside from SMR and hydrogen adoption could re-rate the energy segment, while downside is mitigated by sole-source defense positions and contracted backlog. At current valuation, the stock prices in execution; any slippage in FY27 margin achievement or defense budget delays would pressure multiples. Conversely, consistent execution and margin inflection could compress EV/EBITDA toward peers, rewarding patient investors who recognize the embedded leverage in a defense-focused, technology-enabled industrial platform.