Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• Strategic Upmarket Transformation: ZoomInfo is deliberately sacrificing near-term growth to rebuild its revenue base around higher-quality enterprise customers, with the upmarket segment now representing 73% of ACV and growing 6% year-over-year while down-market revenue declines. This shift is improving net revenue retention to 90% (the highest since Q2 2023) and reducing invoice write-offs by 45%, fundamentally enhancing the durability of future cash flows.

• AI Product Inflection Point: The company's AI-powered Copilot has surged past $150 million in ACV with over 90% of new customers adopting it, while the Operations Suite grew over 20% year-over-year in Q3 2025. These products aren't just features—they represent a platform evolution from static data provider to AI execution engine, creating a "3x opportunity" by expanding from SDRs into account executive and manager workflows.

• Capital Allocation as Value Driver: Management is deploying 116% of generated free cash flow since 2024 into aggressive share repurchases, reducing shares outstanding by approximately 80 million over two years. With the stock trading at what executives call a "deep discount to intrinsic value," this buyback strategy could become the primary driver of per-share value creation if the AI platform thesis materializes.

• Competitive Moat in Proprietary Data: ZoomInfo's unique advantage lies in its proprietary data assets that are "not available on the public web," combined with native integration of data, orchestration, AI, and frontline execution. This positions it as the "only vendor" with this integrated capability, creating a defensible position against both legacy data providers and CRM-integrated competitors.

• Critical Execution Risks: The thesis hinges on successfully navigating three key risks: the ongoing SMB transition creating near-term revenue headwinds, the threat of CRM giants (Salesforce (CRM), Microsoft (MSFT)) bundling competitive intelligence tools, and the execution challenge of scaling AI products beyond early adopters while maintaining the 30%+ margins that support the buyback strategy.

Setting the Scene: From Data Provider to AI Execution Platform

ZoomInfo Technologies, founded in 2007 and headquartered in Vancouver, Washington, has spent nearly two decades building what management now calls "the core software platform for go-to-market." The company's evolution from a contact database provider to an AI-powered execution platform explains both its recent challenges and its emerging opportunity. The symbolic ticker change from ZI to GTM in Q1 2025 wasn't mere rebranding—it signaled a fundamental strategic repositioning.

The go-to-market intelligence industry sits at the intersection of three powerful trends. First, AI transformation is forcing companies to rearchitect their sales and marketing stacks around intelligent agents rather than static workflows. Second, changes in search engine behavior (AI Overviews) and SEO are reducing inbound leads, pushing companies back toward outbound prospecting that requires high-quality contact data. Third, enterprises are realizing that running large language models on their first-party CRM data "falls short" because go-to-market professionals need third-party intelligence that exists outside their internal systems.

ZoomInfo's platform addresses this gap through three integrated layers: an Intelligence Layer (proprietary data foundation), an Orchestration Layer (data management and enrichment), and an Engagement Layer (AI-powered execution tools). This architecture moves the company beyond selling data access to selling outcomes—automated prospecting, enriched CRM records, and AI-guided sales conversations. The strategic shift upmarket, where customers have greater than 100 employees, reflects recognition that enterprise buyers value this integrated platform approach more than SMBs, who historically treated ZoomInfo as a simple contact database.

Technology, Products, and Strategic Differentiation

The Operations Suite: Data Foundation as Moat

The Operations Suite represents ZoomInfo's fastest-growing product, expanding over 20% year-over-year in Q3 2025 and reaching 44% of the overall business. This isn't accidental growth—it's the direct result of enterprises recognizing that AI initiatives require clean, enriched, third-party data to function effectively. The suite's data-as-a-service solution saw new logos increase 24% year-over-year while average ACV per customer rose approximately 10%, indicating both market expansion and pricing power.

Legacy data providers like Dun & Bradstreet (DNB) offer static firmographics but lack the dynamic intent signals and workflow integration that AI models require. When ZoomInfo demonstrated a 25% improvement in coverage rates compared to an existing provider for one of the world's largest companies—particularly in SMB and startup coverage—it revealed a structural advantage. This data superiority creates upmarket displacement opportunities from organizations using stale, low-quality data from legacy vendors, paving a path to premium pricing and market share gains in the most profitable enterprise segment.

Copilot: AI Execution Engine

Copilot's trajectory from $60 million ACV in Q3 2024 to over $150 million by Q4 2024 represents more than 150% growth in just two quarters. More importantly, over 90% of new customer ACV now includes Copilot, and renewals show a "mid- to high single-digit improvement" in uplift compared to legacy Sales OS renewals. Customers report 25% of pipeline directly attributed to Copilot, 58% higher engagement rates, and eight hours per week in productivity gains.

The strategic significance extends beyond these metrics. Copilot is expanding beyond SDR prospecting into account executive and account manager use cases, representing a "3x opportunity" in the existing customer base. Early data shows AE and AM users achieving activity levels comparable to core SDR users, suggesting the product has crossed the chasm from niche tool to broad platform. This expansion increases seat penetration in enterprise customers, which management estimates remains in the "high single-digits to low double-digits"—implying massive runway for growth within the installed base.

GTM Studio and Workspace: Orchestration Layer

Launched in Q1 2025, GTM Studio and Workspace represent the company's vision to unify first and third-party data into a "dynamic workspace" for building AI-ready views of target markets. Management describes this as an "incredibly white space opportunity" that positions ZoomInfo as the "only vendor with natively integrated data, orchestration, AI, and frontline execution."

This integration addresses a critical gap in the market. While Salesforce's Agentforce and Microsoft's Copilot can access CRM data, they lack the third-party intelligence layer necessary for effective go-to-market execution. ZoomInfo's partnership with Salesforce to integrate Revenue Agent into Agentforce acknowledges this reality: even the dominant CRM platform needs external data to power its AI agents. As a result, ZoomInfo can become the essential intelligence layer across multiple platforms, reducing customer concentration risk and expanding its addressable market beyond its own UI.

Financial Performance & Segment Dynamics

Revenue Quality Over Quantity

ZoomInfo's Q3 2025 results tell a story of deliberate quality improvement over growth maximization. Total revenue grew 3.8% year-over-year to $318 million, but the composition reveals the strategic shift. Subscription revenue of $311.7 million grew 3.76%, while usage-based revenue surged 69% to $4.4 million and other revenue jumped 217% to $1.9 million. The modest headline growth masks a more important trend: the upmarket business now represents 73% of total ACV and grew 6% year-over-year, while the down-market segment declined 10%.

Management explicitly states that the shift to upmarket customers is effectively adding 1-2 points of revenue growth because historically, 20-30% of down-market revenue would be written off or churn. The new business risk model, which requires upfront prepayments from high-risk SMB prospects, has reduced invoice write-offs by 45% since inception. This means the company is trading low-quality, high-churn revenue for stable, collectible enterprise contracts. The near-term headwind creates a stronger foundation for sustainable growth and improved cash conversion.

Margin Expansion and Rule of 40 Achievement

The company achieved a 37% adjusted operating margin in Q3 2025, returning to "Rule of 40" status for the first time in six quarters. This demonstrates that the upmarket shift isn't just a revenue mix story—it's driving fundamental operating leverage. Enterprise customers have significantly higher margins than the down-market business, and the scaling of AI products like Copilot (which carry software economics) should further expand margins over time.

Cash flow conversion supports this thesis. Unlevered free cash flow of $95 million in Q3 represented 81% conversion from adjusted operating income and a 30% margin.

The company has used 116% of generated free cash flow since 2024 to repurchase shares, a strategy management defends as the "best and highest return use of free cash flow" when the stock trades at a "deep discount to intrinsic value." This aggressive capital return, combined with improving margins, suggests management believes the market is undervaluing the transformed business model.

Customer Metrics and Retention

Net revenue retention improved to 90% in Q3 2025, up five percentage points year-over-year and reaching its highest level since Q2 2023. Critically, in-period NRR for upmarket customers exceeded 100%, indicating that existing enterprise customers are expanding their spend. The company now has 1,887 customers with over $100,000 in ACV, up 4% year-over-year, with ACV growth from this cohort materially outpacing customer growth.

These metrics validate the platform strategy. When customers on Copilot show higher engagement and net retention outcomes, it proves the AI products aren't just nice-to-have features—they're driving measurable business value that customers will pay more for over time. The $1 million ACV cohort accelerating to over 30% year-over-year growth further demonstrates that the largest enterprises are deepening their commitment to the platform.

Outlook, Management Guidance, and Execution Risk

2026 Commitment and Guidance Framework

Management's guidance for full-year 2025—$1.237 to $1.240 billion in revenue (2% growth) and $440 to $443 million in adjusted operating income (36% margin)—might appear conservative. However, the commentary reveals a deliberate strategy to properly manage expectations while committing to three levers for 2026: revenue growth, margin expansion, and aggressive share repurchases. CFO Graham O'Brien explicitly states this combination should support the expectation of accelerating free cash flow per share growth in 2026 relative to 2025.

This framework signals that management has completed the heavy lifting of the strategic pivot and is now focused on compounding per-share value. The company is committed to delivering revenue growth, margin expansion and aggressive share repurchases in 2026, suggesting all three will contribute to free cash flow per share acceleration. This is a stark contrast to the prior strategy of investing heavily in SMB customer acquisition at the expense of quality.

Execution Fragility

Despite management's confidence that "the momentum in our business feels better than it has in years," several factors make the outlook fragile. First, the business is becoming more seasonal as it shifts upmarket, making sequential quarterly growth "less important" and year-over-year comparisons more critical. This creates potential for misinterpretation of results and increased volatility if quarterly performance misses expectations.

Second, the AI product thesis remains early-stage. While Copilot has reached $150 million ACV, management admits the "incredibly white space opportunity" of GTM Studio has "incredible upside" but unproven revenue traction. The expansion into AE and AM use cases represents a "3x opportunity" but requires successful product-market fit validation beyond the initial SDR user base.

Third, the competitive landscape is intensifying. Salesforce's Agentforce and Microsoft's integration of AI across its productivity suite could bundle competing intelligence tools, forcing ZoomInfo to prove its standalone value proposition. Management's response—that "running large-language models on CRM data falls short"—is logical but requires continuous product innovation to maintain differentiation.

Risks and Asymmetries

The SMB Transition Risk

The down-market segment's 10% year-over-year decline creates a near-term growth headwind that could persist longer than expected. While management argues this business is becoming "smaller and healthier," the transition requires perfect execution. If the digital self-service model for micro-SMBs fails to stabilize the decline, or if economic conditions worsen and cause upmarket customers to cut discretionary spend, revenue growth could stall entirely. The risk is asymmetric: the upside is a higher-quality business, but the downside is a prolonged period of sub-5% growth that fails to excite investors.

Competitive Bundling Threat

The most material competitive risk comes not from direct competitors but from platform bundling. Salesforce (CRM) and Microsoft (MSFT) can integrate basic contact intelligence and AI agents into existing contracts at little marginal cost. While management correctly notes that "you can't just rely on first-party data" for go-to-market AI, many customers may accept "good enough" data quality if it's seamlessly integrated into their CRM workflow. ZoomInfo's advantage in proprietary data and native execution only matters if customers are willing to pay a premium for it. A recessionary environment could compress that willingness, forcing price cuts that erode the 37% operating margin.

AI Investment and Data Privacy Risks

Investing in AI capability introduces execution risk: if the models underperform or hallucinate, customer trust could collapse. More concerning are the active legal proceedings related to data privacy, including class action lawsuits under Washington Personality Rights Act, Illinois Right of Publicity Act, and other statutes. While management emphasizes its "industry-leading regulatory and compliance posture," adverse rulings could restrict data collection methods or require costly settlements, directly impacting the proprietary data moat that underpins the entire AI strategy.

Competitive Context and Positioning

Versus Legacy Data Providers

Dun & Bradstreet (DNB) represents the legacy competition, with its 2-3% revenue growth and static firmographic data. ZoomInfo's 20%+ growth in the Operations Suite and dynamic intent signals create a stark contrast. The 25% improvement in coverage rates that ZoomInfo demonstrated for a major enterprise client isn't just a sales talking point—it reveals a structural data advantage that becomes more valuable as AI models require high-quality training data. DNB's focus on credit risk and compliance leaves it vulnerable in the sales intelligence segment where ZoomInfo is gaining share.

Versus CRM-Integrated Platforms

Salesforce's Agentforce and HubSpot's (HUBS) AI tools benefit from native integration but suffer from data limitations. As management notes, "running large-language models on CRM data falls short" because it lacks third-party context. ZoomInfo's partnership to embed Revenue Agent into Salesforce workflows acknowledges this reality: even the dominant CRM needs external intelligence. The key differentiator is that ZoomInfo's data is "unique and proprietary" and "not available on the public web," while competitors rely on user-generated content (LinkedIn) or first-party data alone. This matters because AI agents trained on comprehensive data produce measurably better outcomes—higher engagement rates, more pipeline—which customers will pay premium prices for.

Versus AI-Native Startups

Emerging AI prospecting tools using synthetic data or public web scraping pose a threat to SMB segments but struggle with enterprise requirements for accuracy, compliance, and integration. ZoomInfo's 20-year accumulation of consent-based, verified contact data and its established integrations create high switching costs that startups cannot easily overcome. The real risk is that these low-cost alternatives compress pricing in the down-market, making ZoomInfo's decision to exit that segment strategically correct but potentially irreversible if the upmarket thesis fails.

Valuation Context

At $9.94 per share, ZoomInfo trades at a market capitalization of $3.17 billion and an enterprise value of $4.59 billion. The valuation multiples reflect a market skeptical of the transformation story: 2.56x price-to-sales, 9.12x price-to-free-cash-flow, and 15.2x EV/EBITDA. These metrics sit well below software industry medians, particularly for companies with 87% gross margins and 30% free cash flow margins.

The disconnect between market valuation and management's "deep discount to intrinsic value" narrative becomes apparent when comparing to peers. Salesforce trades at 12.2x sales and 20.3x EV/EBITDA despite 9% revenue growth. HubSpot commands 6.7x sales with 21% growth but minimal operating margins. ZoomInfo's 2.56x sales multiple implies the market expects minimal growth and potential margin compression—effectively pricing the company as a declining asset.

What matters for investors is the asymmetry. If the AI platform thesis succeeds and upmarket growth reaccelerates to mid-single digits while margins expand toward 40%, the current multiple would likely re-rate toward 4-5x sales, implying 60-95% upside before accounting for the 80 million shares already repurchased. Conversely, if competitive pressure intensifies and NRR deteriorates, the 2.6x net debt-to-equity ratio and $1.3 billion gross debt could become burdensome, though the $135 million cash position and $95 million quarterly free cash flow provide cushion.

Management's commitment to using "the majority of the cash we generate" for buybacks at these levels creates a compelling value proposition. With 116% of free cash flow already deployed to repurchases, the share count reduction accelerates per-share value creation even without multiple expansion. The key question is whether the business can sustain 30% free cash flow margins while investing in AI product development—management's guidance suggests it can, but execution risk remains.

Conclusion

ZoomInfo stands at an inflection point where a deliberate strategic pivot—exiting low-quality SMB revenue, investing in AI-powered platform products, and aggressively returning capital at depressed valuations—could create substantial shareholder value. The upmarket shift has improved net revenue retention to 90% and reduced write-offs by 45%, while AI products like Copilot and GTM Studio are scaling rapidly and demonstrating clear customer ROI.

The investment thesis hinges on two critical variables. First, can ZoomInfo maintain its competitive moat in proprietary data and native AI execution as CRM giants bundle competing tools? The early evidence—100%+ NRR in upmarket customers, displacement of legacy vendors, and partnerships with platforms like Salesforce—suggests the moat is widening, not narrowing. Second, will the capital allocation strategy of aggressive buybacks at 9x free cash flow prove more valuable than investing in growth or making acquisitions? Management's conviction and the 116% cash deployment ratio indicate they believe buybacks offer the highest return.

The primary risk is execution: the AI platform vision must deliver sustained upmarket growth and margin expansion to justify the strategic trade-offs. If the company can achieve mid-single-digit revenue growth with 40% operating margins by 2026 while continuing to shrink the share count, the current valuation appears to offer significant upside asymmetry. However, any stumble in AI product adoption or intensified competitive bundling could validate the market's skeptical pricing. For investors, the story is clear: ZoomInfo is no longer a data company—it's an AI execution platform priced like a melting ice cube, and that disconnect creates the opportunity.