Mosaic Company announced its support for the U.S. Department of the Interior’s decision to add phosphate and potash to the Critical Minerals List on November 10, 2025. The decision itself was issued on November 6, 2025, and the designation formally recognizes these minerals as essential to U.S. food production and national security, potentially increasing federal procurement and creating a favorable environment for future government contracts.
Mosaic’s Q3 2025 earnings, released on November 4, 2025, delivered a strong performance that reinforced the positive impact of the new designation. Earnings per share rose to $1.29, beating the consensus estimate of $0.98 by $0.31 (a 31.6% beat). Total revenue reached $3.45 billion, slightly above the $3.44 billion estimate by $10 million. The earnings beat was driven by a combination of higher product prices, improved operational efficiency, and a favorable mix of phosphate and potash sales. Mosaic’s cost controls kept operating expenses in line with revenue growth, allowing the company to preserve margin expansion.
Segment analysis shows that phosphate sales volumes increased to 1.7–1.9 million tonnes in Q4, while potash volumes were projected at 2.3–2.6 million tonnes. DAP prices were expected to trade between $700 and $730 per tonne FOB plant, and MOP prices were forecast at $270–$280 per tonne FOB mine. These price levels, combined with higher production volumes, contributed to a gross margin improvement to 15% from 12% a year earlier, reflecting both pricing power and scale benefits.
Management guidance for the full year 2025 highlights continued confidence in production growth, with projected phosphate production of 6.3–6.5 million tonnes and potash production of 9.1–9.4 million tonnes. The company also reiterated its focus on restoring asset health, which has led to three consecutive quarters of higher phosphate production. CEO Bruce Bodine emphasized that “phosphate and potash production is critical to food security, and food security is national security,” underscoring the strategic importance of the Critical Minerals designation for Mosaic’s long‑term strategy.
Investors responded positively to the earnings beat and the critical minerals designation. The market reaction was driven by the strong Q3 earnings, the significant year‑over‑year improvement in net income and adjusted EBITDA, and the potential for increased federal support and procurement that the designation signals. The designation also positions Mosaic favorably for future government contracts and may justify further investment in production capacity and technology.
The inclusion of phosphate and potash on the Critical Minerals List is a milestone for the U.S. fertilizer industry, reinforcing domestic production as a national priority. For Mosaic, the designation aligns with its strategic focus on expanding U.S. phosphate production, improving operational efficiency, and leveraging its market position to secure future government contracts. The company’s robust Q3 results and forward‑looking guidance suggest a trajectory of continued growth and resilience in a sector that is increasingly tied to national security and food supply chains.
The content on BeyondSPX is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. We are not financial advisors. Consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. Any actions you take based on information from this site are solely at your own risk.