Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) reported third‑quarter 2025 results that included an adjusted net income of $101.8 million, or $1.03 per share, and a GAAP net loss of $129.1 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $387.1 million, down 6% from the same period in 2024, while production averaged 131,054 barrels of oil equivalent per day— a 2.3% decline from the second quarter but an 8% increase over the third quarter of 2024.
Revenue for the quarter was $506.4 million, falling short of the consensus estimate of $524.2 million and representing a miss of roughly $17.8 million. The shortfall was driven by a 7% drop in realized prices and a shift in the production mix toward lower‑priced natural gas, which reduced the average selling price per barrel of oil equivalent. Despite the revenue miss, the company’s cost discipline and efficient operating leverage allowed it to generate a strong adjusted earnings beat of $0.21 per share, a 25.6% exceedance of the $0.82 consensus estimate.
Production was led by the Permian and Appalachian basins, which together accounted for the majority of output. The company’s focus on non‑operated minority interests in these high‑producing basins helped sustain growth, while the mix shift to gas contributed to the margin compression seen in the adjusted EBITDA decline. Management noted that the company’s hedging program and disciplined cost management were key to maintaining a roughly 30% operating margin on an adjusted basis.
Guidance for 2025 was revised upward: average daily production is now projected at 132,500 to 134,000 Boe/d, and capital expenditures are capped at $950 million to $1,025 million— a tightening from the previously announced $1,050 million to $1,200 million. The higher production outlook reflects confidence in continued demand for the company’s assets, while the more conservative capex range signals a cautious stance amid volatile commodity prices.
CEO Nick O’Grady emphasized that the company remains resilient in a volatile market, highlighting its strategy of acquiring non‑operated assets and its strong liquidity position of $1.2 billion. He added that the firm continues to generate solid cash flow, remains well‑hedged, and is positioned to pursue counter‑cyclical upside opportunities in 2026.
Market reaction to the earnings was positive, driven primarily by the significant EPS beat and the raised production guidance. Investors focused on the company’s ability to generate profit despite revenue headwinds, and the guidance signals confidence in future operational performance while maintaining disciplined capital allocation.
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