Nvidia has begun shipping its H200 AI accelerator to Chinese customers, with shipments scheduled to start in mid‑February 2026. The company will deliver between 5,000 and 10,000 H200 modules—equivalent to 40,000 to 80,000 individual chips—under a U.S. administration carve‑out that allows exports with a 25 % fee on the chip price. The move follows a month‑long ban that halted all sales of the H200 to China.
The 25 % fee is part of a broader U.S. export‑control policy shift that selectively relaxes restrictions on advanced semiconductor technology. By permitting the H200 under a fee, the administration signals a willingness to balance national‑security concerns with commercial interests, while still maintaining a revenue stream for the U.S. government. The policy change also reflects the growing importance of AI hardware in China’s technology strategy and the need for a more nuanced approach to export controls.
China’s AI market is estimated at roughly $50 billion, and the H200 is one of the most powerful chips available for large‑scale AI training and inference. Re‑entering this market could add up to $3.2 billion in revenue for Nvidia, a significant portion of its total annual sales. The decision also positions Nvidia against domestic competitors such as Huawei’s Ascend series, which have been gaining traction in the region during the export‑ban period.
Logistically, Nvidia will ship the modules from its U.S. manufacturing facilities to Chinese distributors, with the first deliveries expected in February 2026. The company has already secured the necessary export licenses and will comply with the 25 % fee structure, which will be applied to the final invoice. While the fee reduces the net price, the high demand for AI acceleration in China is expected to offset the impact on margins.
The resumption of H200 shipments is a strategic win for Nvidia, expanding its revenue base and reinforcing its leadership in the AI chip market. The move also signals a shift in U.S. policy that could open additional opportunities for other advanced‑technology exports to China. However, the company must navigate ongoing regulatory scrutiny and potential competition from local manufacturers, which could influence future pricing and market share dynamics.
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