Old Market Capital's Broadband Pivot: A Subprime Lender's High-Stakes Gamble on Rural Fiber (NASDAQ:OMCC) - OMCC Stock Research Report

## Executive Summary / Key Takeaways * Complete Business Transformation Creates Binary Outcome: Old Market Capital has executed a full exit from subprime auto lending and is now a pure-play rural broadband provider through its Amplex subsidiary, representing a strategic reset that either unlocks value in an underserved niche or exposes the company to insurmountable competitive and operational challenges. * Fiber Growth Masks Margin Collapse: While fiber internet revenue surged 31% in the recent quarter, segment operating income plummeted 93% to just $31,000, revealing that customer acquisition and network expansion costs are overwhelming revenue gains and raising serious questions about the scalability of the business model. * Operational Immaturity Threatens Execution: Material weaknesses in internal controls—including inadequate segregation of duties at Amplex and limited IT governance—suggest management may lack the infrastructure to operate a capital-intensive telecom business, increasing the risk of financial misstatements and operational inefficiencies during a critical growth phase. * Strong Balance Sheet Provides Limited Runway: With a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.12 and a current ratio of 4.55, OMCC has balance sheet flexibility, but negative free cash flow of -$10.32 million over the trailing twelve months means the company is burning cash quickly, giving it perhaps 2-3 years to demonstrate viability before requiring dilutive financing. * Valuation Offers Asymmetric Risk/Reward: Trading at 0.63x book value and 2.62x sales, the stock prices in significant execution risk, but successful fiber scale-up in rural Ohio could drive meaningful re-rating; however, aggressive expansion by Charter and Frontier into these same markets could render OMCC's niche strategy obsolete. ## Setting the Scene: From Subprime Lending to Rural Broadband Old Market Capital Corporation, founded in 1985 as Nicholas Financial and headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, spent nearly four decades building a business most investors would prefer to forget: subprime automobile lending. This legacy matters because it explains both the company's current financial position and the magnitude of its strategic pivot. For years, the company operated Nicholas Financial, Inc. (NFI), acquiring and servicing auto finance installment contracts, and Nicholas Data Services (NDS), providing software to small businesses. By 2023, this model had clearly run its course, prompting a radical restructuring that few micro-cap companies attempt: a complete business model transformation. In November 2023, management made the decisive move to exit finance entirely, agreeing to sell substantially all receivables to Westlake Financial and ceasing new originations. This wasn't a gradual shift—it was a full amputation. The sale closed in April 2024, and by June 2025, both legacy subsidiaries were formally dissolved. This decisive move demonstrates management's willingness to abandon a failing business rather than cling to fading cash flows, a trait that, while painful in the short term, is essential for long-term value creation. However, it also means the company is now a startup in disguise, operating with the baggage of a public listing and legacy systems. The pivot target—telecommunications—wasn't random. On June 15, 2024, OMCC acquired a 51% majority interest in Amplex, an Ohio-based provider of broadband internet, VOIP, and video services. This acquisition has since been built up to a 66.4% stake through additional capital contributions. Amplex operates in Northwest and North Central Ohio, primarily serving rural counties where larger providers have historically underinvested. This geographic focus creates the company's only defensible moat: hyper-local expertise in underserved markets. But it also defines its fundamental challenge—OMCC is a $34 million market cap company competing against giants like Charter Communications (TICKER:CHTR) ($27 billion market cap) and Frontier Communications (TICKER:FYBR) ($9.5 billion market cap) in a business where scale determines cost per customer and capital allocation efficiency. The telecommunications industry is in the midst of a fiber arms race, with national players using government subsidies and massive balance sheets to overbuild rural markets. Charter is deploying gigabit speeds across Ohio, Frontier is adding fiber customers at a record pace, and even regional players like Buckeye Broadband maintain deeper local infrastructure. OMCC's strategy is to carve out a niche where these behemoths' urban-focused economics break down. The question is whether this niche is large enough and defensible enough to support a standalone public company. ## Technology, Products, and Strategic Differentiation: The Rural Fiber Play Amplex's value proposition centers on a hybrid wireless and fiber network serving approximately 13,400 broadband customers as of September 2025, including 5,400 fiber subscribers. The company has completed over 15,000 fiber passings, representing the physical infrastructure that forms the backbone of its growth strategy. Each fiber passing represents a potential customer with significantly higher lifetime value than wireless subscribers—fiber customers typically exhibit lower churn, higher ARPU, and greater willingness to purchase bundled services. This is a critical factor for the company's growth strategy. The technology differentiation isn't in proprietary hardware or breakthrough software; it's in deployment economics. Amplex targets rural areas where the cost-per-passing for national fiber builds exceeds corporate return thresholds. By focusing on counties like Wood, Hancock, Ottawa, and Sandusky, OMCC can achieve local scale where Charter and Frontier would need to justify investment across entire states. This creates a small but tangible moat: once Amplex has built fiber to a rural township, the economics for a second provider to overbuild become prohibitive. The customer base, while modest, is sticky—rural customers with limited alternatives face high switching costs. The RUS (Rural Utilities Service) Loan is critical to this strategy. The $2.7 million in proceeds from long-term debt reported in the recent quarter appears to be part of this program, which finances broadband infrastructure in areas where at least 50% of households lack sufficient access. This provides subsidized capital for expansion, reducing the cash burn that would otherwise accelerate. However, the loan comes with strict covenants: Amplex cannot merge, incur additional debt, or change its principal business without RUS consent. This restricts strategic flexibility, effectively locking the company into its current rural focus. While this aligns with management's stated strategy, it also means OMCC cannot easily pivot if the rural fiber thesis proves flawed. Management's growth strategy explicitly includes "continuing to make capital expenditures for the purpose of expanding our fiber network, and potentially to acquire businesses." The fiber expansion is evident in the numbers: fiber internet revenue grew 31% in Q3 2025 and 121% over six months. This growth rate demonstrates product-market fit in the target niche. However, the wireless internet segment declined 6% in Q3, suggesting that legacy wireless customers are either churning or being migrated to fiber. This mix shift is strategically correct but creates near-term revenue headwinds and requires sustained capex to maintain fiber momentum. ## Financial Performance: Revenue Growth Meets Margin Implosion The financial results tell a story of a company in transition, but not yet a successful one. For the three months ended September 30, 2025, telecommunications revenue grew 6.8% to $3.16 million. At first glance, this appears solid for a rural broadband provider. But the composition reveals the underlying stress: wireless revenue declined 6% to $1.67 million, while fiber revenue surged 31% to $1.02 million. While fiber growth more than offset the wireless decline, the overall cost structure is deteriorating rapidly.

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Segment operating income collapsed from $442,000 in Q3 2024 to just $31,000 in Q3 2025—a 93% decline. This margin implosion is the single most important financial metric because it demonstrates that revenue growth is coming at unsustainable cost. Management attributes the increase in cost of services to "an increase in fiber subscribers as the company continues to expand its fiber network." In other words, the marginal cost of acquiring and serving fiber customers is currently exceeding marginal revenue. This is the classic scale challenge in telecom: high upfront capex and customer acquisition costs must be amortized over long customer lifetimes, but OMCC's small base means fixed costs overwhelm variable contributions. The six-month figures appear more impressive at 79.7% revenue growth, but this is entirely due to acquisition timing. In the prior year period, Amplex only contributed from June 15 to September 30, making the comparison meaningless for assessing organic growth. The recent quarter's 6.8% growth rate is modest for a company supposedly in a high-growth phase. The fact that operating income for the six months also declined—from $158,000 to $96,000—confirms that margins are compressing even as the business scales. General and administrative expenses decreased in the quarter, which management attributes to non-recurring professional fees from the prior year's acquisition. This is a positive signal, but depreciation and amortization expense increased significantly due to the fiber network build-out. This non-cash expense represents the accounting recognition of capital being consumed, and it will continue rising as long as capex remains elevated. With $8.5 million in property and equipment purchases in the first six months of fiscal 2025, the depreciation burden will only grow, further pressuring reported earnings. The consolidated financials are even uglier. Annual net income stands at -$5.15 million, with quarterly net loss of -$752,000. Operating cash flow is -$1.9 million over twelve months, and free cash flow is a devastating -$10.32 million. OMCC is burning cash at a rate that will exhaust its resources within 2-3 years unless operations turn cash-positive or external financing is secured. The company has no material commitments for capital expenditures as of September 30, 2025, but management's stated growth strategy explicitly requires continued capex. This creates an inevitable funding need that will likely dilute existing shareholders.

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The balance sheet provides some comfort. With a current ratio of 4.55 and debt-to-equity of just 0.12, OMCC is not facing immediate liquidity crisis. The company has $2.7 million in new long-term debt from the RUS loan, but this is restricted capital that cannot be used for general corporate purposes. The cash position is not explicitly stated, but the negative free cash flow and modest enterprise value of $21.58 million suggest limited financial flexibility. This suggests management has a window to prove the fiber thesis, but that window is narrow and closing. ## Outlook, Guidance, and Execution Risk Management's guidance is implicit rather than explicit, but the strategic signals are clear. The company expects to complete remediation of material weaknesses in internal control during fiscal 2026, which acknowledges operational immaturity but also suggests a timeline for becoming a properly functioning public company. However, the nature of these weaknesses—inadequate segregation of duties, a CEO who can post journal entries without review, and limited IT policies—suggests the problems are cultural and structural, not merely technical. This raises execution risk significantly. The growth strategy depends on two pillars: fiber network expansion and potential acquisitions. The fiber expansion is already underway, with 15,000 passings completed and more planned. Each passing costs thousands of dollars, and the revenue payback period in rural markets can exceed five years. OMCC must maintain this capex pace to grow, but its negative free cash flow means it's funding expansion by burning existing capital. This is sustainable only if the company can eventually achieve positive unit economics, which the current margin compression calls into question.

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The acquisition strategy is even riskier. Management states they would fund deals through "cash on hand, the issuance of debt, Common Stock, restricted stock units, and warrants." For a company with negative cash flow and a $34 million market cap, using stock as currency would be highly dilutive. Any debt issuance would be expensive given the lack of profitability. This suggests acquisitions are more aspirational than realistic in the near term, and investors should view this as management signaling ambition rather than concrete plans. The competitive outlook is deteriorating. Charter's rural Ohio expansion and Frontier's record fiber additions directly threaten Amplex's niche. While OMCC's local focus provides some defense, the reality is that national players can afford to overbuild even in marginal markets if it helps them achieve state-wide scale for government subsidy programs. If Charter (TICKER:CHTR) or Frontier (TICKER:FYBR) decides to target Amplex's core counties, OMCC lacks the capital to compete in a price war or to accelerate its own buildout meaningfully. Management's commentary on the discontinued operations is telling. The decrease in income from the sold finance business is "primarily attributed to the non-recurrence of any gains on the disposal of assets and on the sale of the finance receivables." This means the company is no longer benefiting from one-time gains that previously padded earnings. The telecom segment must now stand entirely on its own, and there are no more financial engineering tricks to mask underperformance. ## Risks and Asymmetries: How the Thesis Breaks The most material risk is competitive obliteration. Charter Communications (TICKER:CHTR), with its $124 billion enterprise value and 5.63x EBITDA multiple, can deploy capital to rural Ohio at a scale OMCC cannot match. Frontier's fiber-first strategy and improving margins make it a formidable regional competitor. If either player decides to aggressively target Amplex's 13,400 customers, OMCC has no meaningful defense. The company's small scale means it cannot match promotional pricing, bundle discounts, or network investment. This risk is existential and could render the entire fiber thesis moot within 12-24 months. The material weaknesses in internal control are not merely compliance issues—they are operational landmines. The fact that Amplex's CEO can post journal entries without independent review, combined with limited IT policies and inadequate segregation of duties, creates a high probability of financial errors or even fraud. Investors cannot trust the financial statements that are supposed to demonstrate progress, which is a significant concern. The company expects remediation by fiscal 2026, but the presence of these weaknesses during a critical growth phase means management may be making investment decisions based on flawed data, increasing the risk of capital misallocation. Cash burn is the ticking clock. At -$10.32 million in annual free cash flow, OMCC is consuming its balance sheet. While the company has low debt, it also has limited cash generation ability. The RUS loan provides some project-specific funding, but general corporate expenses, overhead, and any unexpected costs must come from existing reserves. This suggests management has perhaps two years to demonstrate a path to positive free cash flow before facing a liquidity crisis that would force dilutive equity issuance or distressed asset sales. The RUS loan covenants, while providing cheap capital, also restrict strategic flexibility. Amplex cannot incur additional debt, merge, or change its business without RUS approval. This prevents OMCC from pursuing creative solutions if the standalone rural fiber thesis fails. The company cannot easily sell Amplex, combine with another regional provider, or pivot to a new strategy. The loan essentially locks OMCC into its current path, for better or worse. Customer concentration in rural Ohio creates geographic risk. A regulatory change, economic downturn in the agricultural sector that dominates these counties, or a technological shift like Starlink's satellite internet could rapidly erode Amplex's customer base. Rural customers are price-sensitive and have limited loyalty when better alternatives emerge. The 6% decline in wireless revenue may be an early warning that customers are beginning to churn to alternative providers. ## Valuation Context: Pricing in Failure At $5.04 per share, Old Market Capital trades at a market capitalization of $34.22 million and an enterprise value of $21.58 million. The price-to-book ratio of 0.63 suggests the market values the company at a 37% discount to its accounting net worth, typically a signal of distress or expected losses. This indicates investors are pricing in a high probability of value destruction, likely due to the cash burn and competitive threats. The price-to-sales ratio of 2.62x appears reasonable for a telecom company, but this is misleading. Charter Communications (TICKER:CHTR) trades at just 0.50x sales despite generating 23.86% operating margins and $124 billion in revenue. Frontier (TICKER:FYBR) trades at 1.57x sales with 9.29% operating margins. OMCC's premium multiple despite -30.48% operating margins suggests the market is either giving credit for the fiber growth story or has not fully appreciated the margin collapse. Any disappointment in growth or further deterioration could trigger a severe multiple compression.

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Traditional earnings-based metrics are meaningless for OMCC given the negative profit margins (-22.01% net margin) and negative returns on equity (-5.69%) and assets (-3.88%). The company is not profitable and shows no clear path to profitability in the near term. This forces investors to focus on either revenue multiples or asset value, both of which are problematic. Revenue is growing but margins are collapsing, and asset values are primarily intangible goodwill and network equipment with uncertain resale value. The balance sheet strength—current ratio of 4.55 and quick ratio of 4.03—provides some downside protection, but these metrics are inflated by the restricted RUS loan proceeds held in pledged accounts. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.12 is low, but this reflects equity that may be overstated if asset values are impaired. The absence of debt also means the company lacks the tax shield and financial leverage that could accelerate returns if the business turns around. Comparing OMCC to its self-identified peers highlights its precarious position. Charter's enterprise value is 2.26x revenue with robust cash flow generation. Frontier's is 3.50x revenue with improving margins. OMCC's 1.65x enterprise value to revenue ratio is lower, but this is not a sign of value—it's a reflection of its tiny scale and negative cash flow. In telecom, size is a primary determinant of value, and OMCC's sub-$50 million enterprise value places it in a category where it lacks the resources to compete effectively. ## Conclusion: A Binary Bet on Execution in a Hostile Industry Old Market Capital represents a pure-play bet on rural broadband consolidation, but one executed by a management team with no proven track record in telecommunications and significant operational deficiencies. The fiber growth numbers are encouraging, but the margin collapse demonstrates that scaling a rural telecom business requires more than just adding passings—it demands operational excellence and capital efficiency that OMCC has not yet demonstrated. The investment thesis hinges on two variables: whether management can remediate internal controls and achieve operational scale before cash runs out, and whether Amplex's rural niche remains defensible against larger competitors' inevitable market fill-in. The strong balance sheet provides a cushion, but the -$10 million annual cash burn rate means this cushion is thinning rapidly. At 0.63x book value, the downside may be limited, but in a competitive consolidation scenario, the upside could be capped by acquisition premiums that barely exceed current trading levels. For investors, OMCC is not a turnaround story—it's a transformation story with all the associated risks. The company has successfully exited a dying business and entered a growing one, but it has done so at a scale that may be insufficient for long-term survival. The fiber growth is real, the market opportunity is real, but the execution challenges and competitive threats are existential. This is a high-risk, potentially high-reward situation suitable only for investors who can afford to lose their entire investment while waiting to see if a micro-cap can defy the economies of scale that define the telecommunications industry.