Pembina Pipeline Corporation released its 2026 financial outlook, a 12‑year agreement for 0.5 million tonnes per annum of Cedar LNG liquefaction capacity with Ovintiv, and an expansion of the Fox Creek‑to‑Namao segment of the Peace Pipeline System. The company’s guidance projects adjusted EBITDA of $4.125 billion to $4.425 billion for 2026, reflecting a modest rise in fee‑based earnings and a tempered outlook for its marketing business.
The 12‑year contract with Ovintiv will allow the latter to export 0.5 mtpa of LNG from Cedar LNG once commercial operations begin in late 2028. The agreement provides Pembina with a stable, take‑or‑pay revenue stream that reinforces its integrated midstream model and positions the company to capture growing demand in Asian markets.
Pembina also announced a $200 million expansion of the Fox Creek‑to‑Namao segment of the Peace Pipeline, adding roughly 70,000 bpd of propane‑plus capacity. The expansion is expected to be in service in the first quarter of 2027 and will enhance the company’s ability to serve Montney producers and other customers in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.
The guidance reflects management’s confidence in fee‑based businesses, which are projected to grow 4% in 2026 versus 2025 forecasts. The company’s prior‑period adjusted EBITDA figures—$1.019 billion in Q3 2024, $1.091 billion in Q2 2024, $1.044 billion in Q1 2024, and $1.033 billion in Q4 2023—illustrate a steady upward trend that underpins the 2026 outlook.
Analysts noted that the company’s fee‑based segment momentum offsets potential marketing headwinds. Raymond James raised its price target to C$67.00 from C$66.00, citing that “momentum in Pembina’s fee‑based businesses more than offsets any potential near‑term marketing headwinds.” The guidance, while slightly below some analyst estimates, signals a cautious yet optimistic view of long‑term growth.
The Cedar LNG agreement and Peace Pipeline expansion are tangible steps that secure future revenue streams and expand service capacity. Together, they demonstrate Pembina’s strategy of leveraging long‑term contracts and infrastructure investments to drive fee‑based earnings, which are less susceptible to commodity price volatility than its marketing business.
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