Sera Prognostics reported a net loss of $7.8 million for the third quarter of 2025, a decline from the $7.3 million loss recorded in the same period last year. The company’s earnings per share of $‑0.16 beat consensus estimates of $‑0.19 to $‑0.23, a $0.03 to $0.07 improvement that reflects disciplined cost management amid a 45% drop in revenue.
Revenue for the quarter fell to $16,000, a 44% decline from the $29,000 generated in Q3 2024 and a miss of the consensus range of $86,700 to $150,000. The shortfall is largely attributable to the limited commercial uptake of the PreTRM test during the quarter; the company received a $100,000 prepayment from its first Medicaid pilot in Nevada, which was recorded as deferred revenue rather than current sales.
Operating expenses rose modestly to $9.0 million, up from $8.9 million in Q3 2024, driven by increased spending on clinical validation and payer engagement. Despite the revenue decline, the company’s gross margin remained stable at 30%, indicating that the cost structure of the test remains largely unchanged.
Management highlighted the progress of the Medicaid pilot, noting that the program covers 33% of U.S. births and is expected to generate additional revenue once payer coverage is secured. CEO Evguenia Lindgardt emphasized that the company is “on track to publish the full results of our PRIME study in a peer‑reviewed journal by the end of the year,” underscoring the strategic importance of the study in supporting reimbursement and adoption.
Analysts noted that the revenue miss will likely dampen short‑term sentiment, but the EPS beat and strong cash position—$102.4 million as of September 30—provide a buffer that supports the company’s long‑term growth strategy. The absence of forward guidance suggests that management remains cautious about near‑term revenue prospects while maintaining confidence in the Medicaid expansion and the upcoming PRIME study publication.
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