Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• Record Performance and Strong Outlook: S&P Global (SPGI) delivered record revenue, operating profit, and EPS in Q3 2025, with revenue up 9% year-over-year and adjusted EPS increasing 22%. The company has raised its 2025 enterprise guidance, now expecting total revenue growth of 7-8% and adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $17.60-$17.85.
• AI and Private Markets as Core Growth Pillars: SPGI is strategically leveraging over $1 billion invested in AI innovation since 2018, integrating generative AI into products like Capital IQ Pro and iLEVEL, and forming key partnerships to enhance data distribution. Concurrently, the acquisition of With Intelligence and collaborations with Cambridge Associates and Mercer solidify its leadership in the rapidly expanding private markets.
• Strategic Portfolio Optimization: The planned spin-off of the Mobility segment and the recent divestiture of OSTTRA, alongside the streamlining of Market Intelligence businesses, are designed to sharpen SPGI's focus on its four core, highly synergistic divisions, enhancing strategic alignment and capital efficiency.
• Robust Capital Returns: Demonstrating strong financial health, SPGI aims to return approximately 85% of its 2025 adjusted free cash flow to shareholders, including an additional $2.5 billion share repurchase planned for Q4 2025, utilizing proceeds from the OSTTRA sale.
• Differentiated Competitive Moat: SPGI's enterprise subscription models, proprietary data (over 95% of revenue from proprietary sources), and integrated workflow solutions, amplified by its advanced AI capabilities, create a formidable competitive advantage against both specialized and broad-based rivals.

The Foundation of Essential Intelligence

S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI), founded in 1860, has evolved into a global powerhouse, providing essential credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions across the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. The company's overarching strategy, "Powering Global Markets," is centered on delivering a differentiated customer experience by enhancing foundational capabilities, growing core businesses, and pursuing strategic adjacencies. This approach is deeply rooted in its history, which includes pivotal acquisitions like Kensho in 2018 that laid the groundwork for its current technological prowess.

SPGI's competitive landscape is diverse, featuring direct rivals such as Moody's Corporation in credit ratings, MSCI Inc. in indices and ESG data, FactSet Research Systems (FDS) in market intelligence, and London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) in market data. SPGI distinguishes itself through an integrated ecosystem that spans its Market Intelligence, Ratings, Commodity Insights, and S&P Dow Jones Indices segments. This breadth allows SPGI to offer comprehensive, end-to-end solutions that often provide greater efficiency and holistic insights for clients compared to more specialized competitors. For instance, SPGI's ability to combine credit ratings with market intelligence and commodity insights creates a unique value proposition, fostering stronger customer loyalty and recurring revenue streams.

Technological Edge: AI as a Core Differentiator

At the heart of S&P Global's competitive advantage is its profound investment in technology, particularly artificial intelligence. Since acquiring Kensho in 2018, SPGI has invested over $1 billion in AI innovation, establishing foundational capabilities through tools like Kensho Link, Kensho Scribe, Kensho NERD, and Kensho Extract. These tools are critical for processing, tagging, and linking data across SPGI’s vast global data estate, enabling the creation of machine-readable files from unstructured data and automating data ingestion. This foundational AI infrastructure is a prerequisite for leveraging large language models (LLMs) effectively and provides a significant technological moat.

The tangible benefits of this investment are evident across SPGI's product portfolio. The recently launched SPICE IndexBuilder, an AI-powered tool, can decrease the time to develop equity indices from approximately one month to just two days. Within Market Intelligence, AI-powered document search in iLEVEL and Document Intelligence 2.0 in Capital IQ Pro enable users to extract real insights across multiple documents simultaneously through conversational interfaces. These tools significantly enhance credit analysis workflows and accelerate decision-making. Internally, S&P Spark Assist, an AI-powered assistant, has been adopted by over 65% of SPGI's global workforce, with over 3,000 internal "Sparks" developed, leading to meaningful productivity and efficiency gains.

For investors, SPGI's AI strategy translates into a robust competitive moat, driving both efficiency and new revenue streams. The Kensho-LLM-ready API allows seamless integration of SPGI's complex, high-priority data sets into clients' generative AI models, while collaborations with tech giants like Microsoft (MSFT), Anthropic, Google (GOOGL), Salesforce (CRM), and IBM (IBM) expand distribution channels and customer acquisition opportunities. Crucially, SPGI maintains strong intellectual property protections, ensuring its proprietary data is not used to train external LLMs. This strategic approach to AI not only enhances existing products but also positions SPGI to launch new, AI-driven offerings and maintain its leadership in an evolving data landscape.

Strategic Evolution and Portfolio Optimization

S&P Global is actively reshaping its portfolio to sharpen its strategic focus and unlock greater shareholder value. A significant move is the planned spin-off of its Mobility division into a standalone public company, expected to be tax-free and completed within 12 to 18 months from its April 29, 2025 announcement. This separation will allow SPGI to concentrate on its four core divisions—Market Intelligence, Ratings, Commodity Insights, and S&P Dow Jones Indices—which share similar characteristics, customer profiles, and greater potential for technological and data resource synergies. The Mobility business, with strong brands like CARFAX and Automotive Mastermind, will also benefit from independent execution of its long-term growth strategy, leveraging its 70% used car market exposure and over 80% subscription revenue.

Further optimizing its portfolio, SPGI completed the sale of its OSTTRA joint venture to KKR (KKR) in October 2025 for an enterprise value of $3.10 billion, with SPGI receiving approximately $1.40 billion in after-tax proceeds. These proceeds are earmarked for additional share repurchases, underscoring the company's commitment to capital returns. Within Market Intelligence, the divestiture of the Enterprise Data Management and thinkFolio businesses, along with fixed assets, marks the "substantial completion" of a multiyear portfolio optimization effort, streamlining the segment for greater strategic alignment.

Growth through strategic acquisitions remains a key component of SPGI's strategy, particularly in high-growth adjacencies. The planned acquisition of With Intelligence for $1.80 billion, to be integrated into Market Intelligence, aims to create one of the most comprehensive data offerings for alternatives and private markets participants. This complements SPGI's existing data on over 50 million private companies and its pricing and valuation data. Additionally, the acquisition of ARC Research for the Indices segment expands capabilities in private wealth market benchmarking, while TeraHelix strengthens data modeling and linking capabilities within Market Intelligence. These strategic moves, coupled with the establishment of the Chief Client Office in 2024, are designed to deepen customer relationships and capitalize on vendor consolidation opportunities, as evidenced by multi-year strategic partnerships like the one with Barclays (BCS).

Financial Performance: A Story of Strength and Discipline

S&P Global's financial performance in 2025 reflects a compelling narrative of resilience, strategic execution, and disciplined capital management. In the third quarter of 2025, the company achieved record revenue of $3.888 billion, marking a 9% increase year-over-year. This robust top-line growth translated into record operating profit of $1.675 billion, up 17% from Q3 2024, and record diluted EPS of $3.86, a 24% increase. On a year-to-date basis through September 30, 2025, total revenue reached $11.420 billion (+8% YoY), with operating profit of $4.804 billion (+12% YoY) and diluted EPS of $10.90 (+15% YoY).

Profitability has been a standout, with adjusted margins expanding by 180 basis points on a trailing 12-month basis in Q3 2025. Excluding the contribution from OSTTRA, adjusted margins would have been 51.6%, indicating strong underlying operational efficiency. This margin expansion was driven by revenue growth and decreased incentives, partially offset by higher compensation costs and strategic investments. Operating-related expenses increased 5% in Q3 2025, primarily due to annual merit increases and additional headcount, while selling and general expenses saw a 1% decrease, or a 5% decrease when excluding various one-time costs and merger-related impacts.

Segment-specific performance in Q3 2025 further illustrates this strength:

• Market Intelligence: Revenue of $1.236 billion (+6% YoY) with operating profit of $277 million (+20% YoY), yielding a 22% margin. Organic constant currency growth accelerated to 8%, its strongest in six quarters, driven by Data, Analytics & Insights (+5% revenue, +6% organic) and Enterprise Solutions (+9% revenue, +13% organic excluding Fincentric divestiture).
• Ratings: Revenue of $1.240 billion (+12% YoY) with operating profit of $819 million (+21% YoY), achieving a 66% margin. Growth was balanced across transaction revenue (+12%, fueled by high-yield and structured finance issuance) and non-transaction revenue (+12%, from surveillance and record Rating Evaluation Services).
• Commodity Insights: Revenue of $556 million (+6% YoY) with operating profit of $235 million (+11% YoY), resulting in a 42% margin. This was driven by consistent double-digit growth in Energy & Resources Data & Insights (+11%) and Price Assessments (+7%).
• Mobility: Revenue of $445 million (+8% YoY) with operating profit of $117 million (+21% YoY), achieving a 26% margin. Strong performance in Dealer (+10%) and Financials & Other (+12%) businesses offset a 3% decline in Manufacturing revenue.
• Indices: Revenue of $459 million (+11% YoY) with operating profit of $317 million (+12% YoY), yielding a 69% margin. Asset-Linked Fees grew 14% due to higher AUM and net inflows, while Data & Custom Subscriptions increased 10%.

From a liquidity perspective, SPGI maintains a robust financial position. Cash and cash equivalents stood at $1.672 billion as of September 30, 2025.

While free cash flow for the first nine months of 2025 decreased by $125 million to $3.520 billion, primarily due to higher compensation and tax payments, the company's free cash flow conversion rate has consistently been at or above 100% of adjusted net income. SPGI is committed to significant capital returns, targeting approximately 85% of its 2025 adjusted free cash flow. This includes an additional $2.5 billion share repurchase planned for Q4 2025, funded in part by the $1.40 billion after-tax proceeds from the OSTTRA divestiture. The company's debt structure is well-managed, with no outstanding commercial paper and an indebtedness to cash flow ratio that has never exceeded the 4:1 covenant.

Outlook, Guidance, and Risk Considerations

S&P Global has raised its 2025 enterprise outlook, now projecting total revenue growth in the range of 7% to 8% and adjusted operating margins between 50% and 50.5%. Adjusted diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of $17.60 to $17.85, representing 12-14% year-over-year growth. These figures are based on assumptions of mid-to-high teens billed issuance growth in Q4 2025 and flat U.S. equity markets from September 30. Management anticipates that maturity walls through 2026 are approximately 8% higher than the previous year, providing a supportive backdrop for Ratings.

Segment-specific guidance for 2025 reflects continued strength:

• Market Intelligence: Revenue growth of 5.5-6.5% and margins of 33-34%.
• Ratings: Revenue growth of 6.5-8.5% and margins of 63-64%.
• Commodity Insights: Revenue growth of 7-8.5% and margins of 47-48% (upper end trimmed due to sanctions).
• Mobility: Revenue growth of 7-8.5% and margins of 39-40%.
• Indices: Revenue growth of 10-12% and margins of 69.5-70.5%.

Despite this optimistic outlook, several risks warrant investor attention. The planned spin-off of the Mobility business, while strategic, is subject to various conditions and may incur significant expenses regardless of completion. Geopolitical uncertainties, including trade conflicts and sanctions, pose a risk, particularly to Commodity Insights, with an expected headwind of $6 million in 2025 and $20 million in 2026 from new sanctions. Market volatility, especially concerning bond issuance and M&A activity, could impact transaction-based revenues. Regulatory scrutiny, particularly for Ratings and in areas like antitrust and ESG, remains an ongoing factor. Furthermore, the company is monitoring the impact of the OECD global minimum tax rules, which could affect its financial statements.

SPGI's competitive positioning is bolstered by its enterprise subscription models, which offer resilience against volatility in end-user headcounts. Its proprietary data, constituting over 95% of its revenue, and its integrated AI-driven workflow solutions provide a strong competitive moat. While competitors like Moody's Corporation (MCO) offer specialized depth in credit risk and MSCI Inc. (MSCI) excels in ESG innovation, SPGI's broad, integrated offerings and continuous AI-driven product enhancements position it favorably to capitalize on customer needs for vendor consolidation and comprehensive insights.

Conclusion

S&P Global stands at a pivotal juncture, demonstrating exceptional financial performance in Q3 2025 and a clear strategic vision for future growth. The company's disciplined execution, coupled with its proactive investments in AI and strategic portfolio optimization, underpins a compelling investment thesis. By leveraging its foundational AI capabilities, SPGI is not only driving internal efficiencies but also delivering innovative, differentiated products that enhance customer value and expand its market reach, particularly in the high-growth private markets.

Despite inherent market volatility and geopolitical risks, SPGI's diversified revenue streams, strong capital allocation strategy, and commitment to shareholder returns provide a robust foundation. The strategic separation of Mobility and the streamlining of Market Intelligence businesses are set to further sharpen the company's focus on its core, synergistic divisions. Investors should monitor the successful execution of the Mobility spin-off, the continued monetization of AI innovations, and the company's ability to sustain its strong organic growth trajectory amidst evolving market dynamics and competitive pressures. SPGI's blend of technological leadership, strategic foresight, and financial discipline positions it for sustained value creation.