TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST)

Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• TrustCo Bank's portfolio lending model—funding loans entirely through locally gathered deposits rather than brokered money or wholesale borrowings—creates a durable low-cost funding advantage that expands net interest margins while competitors scramble for liquidity.
• Home equity lending has emerged as the primary growth engine, with 15.7% year-over-year growth and a new seven-day closing product, capitalizing on homeowners' equity in a high-rate environment where purchase mortgage volumes remain muted.
• Exceptional credit quality, with net charge-offs never exceeding 0.02% annually over the past five years and two consecutive quarters of net recoveries in 2025, provides earnings predictability and lower provision expenses through economic cycles.
• Management views the stock as "significantly undervalued," backing this conviction with a 1 million share buyback authorization (5% of outstanding shares) while maintaining a well-capitalized position with 10.9% equity-to-assets ratio.
• Emerging opportunities in cannabis banking and selective commercial real estate lending offer asymmetric upside as larger competitors retreat from these segments, though the core thesis depends on execution of the conservative, community-focused strategy rather than these ventures.

Setting the Scene: The Portfolio Lender's Edge

TrustCo Bank Corp NY, founded in 1902 and headquartered in Glenville, New York, operates as a community bank with a deliberately simple strategy: gather deposits from local customers and lend those same funds back into the communities where they originated. This approach, which avoids brokered certificates of deposit and wholesale borrowings entirely, represents a fundamental departure from the funding models employed by most regional competitors. While peers like M&T Bank (MTB) ($210 billion in assets) and Valley National Bancorp (VLY) ($63 billion) supplement core deposits with institutional funding sources, TrustCo's $5.48 billion deposit base is built entirely through customer relationships across its 147 banking offices in New York, Florida, Vermont, and New Jersey.

This funding model matters because it provides stability and cost advantage when interest rates are volatile. In the third quarter of 2025, TrustCo paid an average rate of just 1.92% on interest-bearing deposits, down from 1.96% a year earlier, while maintaining strong deposit growth of $217 million. The bank's ability to fund its $5.18 billion loan portfolio without resorting to market-based funding sources means its net interest margin expands when competitors' margins compress due to rising wholesale funding costs. This structural advantage becomes particularly valuable as the Federal Reserve signals potential rate cuts, allowing TrustCo to reprice maturing certificates of deposit lower while maintaining loan yields.

The company's 120-year history has cultivated a conservative culture that prioritizes credit quality over growth at any cost. Chief Executive Officer Robert J. McCormick emphasizes that "we take in deposits and lend those funds right back out into the communities where they were gathered," a principle that aligns the bank's interests with its customers and reduces the geographic and credit concentration risks that plague larger institutions. This community-focused approach has created a loyal deposit base that grew across all categories in the first quarter of 2025, including low-cost core and business accounts.

Technology, Products, and Strategic Differentiation

TrustCo's competitive moat extends beyond its funding model into product innovation and service delivery. The home equity lending team has developed an expedited product promising closings within seven days of application, a significant improvement over industry norms that often require 30-45 days. This capability matters because it captures demand from homeowners seeking to access equity for home improvements, education expenses, or debt consolidation without the friction of lengthy approval processes. In the third quarter of 2025, home equity credit lines grew 15.7% year-over-year to $59.9 million, surpassing purchase mortgage volumes as the primary growth driver.

The bank actively markets unique aspects of its residential loan products, including low closing costs, fast turnaround times, and no escrow or mortgage insurance requirements for qualified borrowers. These features differentiate TrustCo from national competitors who offer standardized products with higher fees and slower processing. As a portfolio lender that originates loans to hold rather than sell, the bank maintains flexibility to manage pricing and implement targeted promotions without conforming to secondary market guidelines. This agility allows TrustCo to capture market share when larger institutions retreat from certain segments.

A new venture into cannabis industry banking leverages the bank's extensive branch network to serve cash-intensive retail outlets in New York and Massachusetts. Management views it as a suitable area for growth given the company's infrastructure for handling large cash volumes. The service is currently offered in all states where TrustCo operates, with most activity concentrated in New York and Massachusetts while Florida remains medical-only. This initiative provides optionality without representing a core component of the investment thesis, as the bank maintains its conservative underwriting standards across all business lines.

Digital capabilities are being enhanced to improve customer experience, though the bank's scale limitations mean it cannot match the technology investments of larger peers like Webster Financial (WBS) or M&T Bank. However, TrustCo's focus on relationship-based banking reduces the urgency of digital transformation, as its customer base values local decision-making and personal service over cutting-edge apps. The dividend reinvestment plan, with approximately 5,843 participants, includes a discount feature that management can activate as a capital-raising tool, though it has not been utilized to date.

Financial Performance as Evidence of Strategy

Third quarter 2025 results validate the portfolio lending model's effectiveness. Net income increased 26.3% year-over-year to $16.3 million, or $0.86 per diluted share, driven by an 11.5% rise in net interest income to $43.1 million. The net interest margin expanded 18 basis points to 2.79%, a significant achievement in a period when many banks are experiencing margin compression. Return on average assets improved to 1.02% from 0.84%, while return on average equity grew to 9.29% from 7.74%. The efficiency ratio decreased nearly 9%, demonstrating operational leverage as revenue growth outpaced expense increases.

These metrics matter because they show the bank is gaining market share while maintaining disciplined cost control. The 2.5% growth in average loan balances to $5.18 billion, led by 15.7% home equity expansion, indicates successful execution of the growth strategy. The average yield on loans increased to 4.32% from 4.12%, reflecting the bank's ability to reprice its portfolio in a higher-rate environment. Meanwhile, the cost of interest-bearing deposits declined to 1.92% from 1.96%, widening the net interest spread.

Credit quality remains the cornerstone of TrustCo's resilience. The bank achieved net recoveries for two consecutive quarters in 2025, and net charge-offs to average loans were just 0.01% in 2024 compared to 0.02% in 2023. Management emphasizes that "we have never exceeded annualized net charge-offs of more than 0.02% compared to our average loan portfolio" over the past five years. This exceptional performance reflects a residential portfolio with no foreign or subprime loans, all originated in-house with conservative underwriting criteria. The commercial loan portfolio, representing only 6% of total loans, focuses on relationship-based loans secured by real estate within the primary market area, with personal guarantees required on all credits.

The allowance for credit losses coverage ratio increased to over 280% as of the third quarter, providing substantial reserves against potential losses. Nonperforming loans declined during the period, and management states that "other than loans currently identified as nonperforming, we are aware of no other loans in the Bank's portfolio that pose material risk of eventual non-collection." This confidence allows the bank to operate with lower provision expenses, directly boosting earnings.

Competitive Context and Market Positioning

TrustCo's $6.2 billion in average interest-earning assets positions it as a niche player compared to regional giants. M&T Bank's $210 billion asset base and Valley National's $63 billion give them scale advantages in technology spending and geographic diversification. However, TrustCo's smaller size enables nimbler decision-making and faster product innovation, as evidenced by the seven-day home equity closing capability. While larger competitors struggle with integration costs and legacy systems, TrustCo's focused strategy allows it to maintain superior efficiency metrics.

The bank's community banking model creates a deposit franchise that is stickier than the more rate-sensitive customer bases of larger institutions. In the third quarter, TrustCo grew total deposits by $217 million while actually reducing its average rate paid, suggesting strong customer loyalty. By contrast, larger competitors often must aggressively price deposits to maintain market share, compressing their margins. TrustCo's approach of "taking in deposits and lending those funds right back out into the communities where they were gathered" creates a self-sustaining ecosystem that larger banks cannot easily replicate.

In residential lending, TrustCo competes effectively against both national mortgage lenders and regional banks by offering lower closing costs and faster processing. Chief Banking Officer Kevin M. Curley notes that "as a portfolio lender, we have the flexibility to manage pricing and implement targeted promotions to increase loan volume." This flexibility contrasts with banks that sell loans into the secondary market and must conform to investor guidelines. The bank's ability to keep loans on its balance sheet also builds long-term customer relationships, as borrowers know their loan will be serviced locally rather than sold to a distant servicer.

Commercial lending presents a different competitive dynamic. With commercial loans representing just 6% of the portfolio, TrustCo is significantly underweight compared to peers like M&T Bank and Webster Financial, where commercial lending is a core business. However, this conservatism has proven advantageous as commercial real estate markets face headwinds. Management sees opportunities to selectively increase commercial exposure, particularly in 2026 and 2027, as other lenders pull back. CEO Robert McCormick states, "I don't think you'll ever see us with $1 billion commercial loan portfolio, but I certainly wouldn't mind pushing that up a significant number, $300 million or $325 million, something like that long-term." This measured approach avoids the concentration risks that have plagued larger banks.

Outlook, Guidance, and Execution Risk

Management's guidance reflects confidence in the bank's positioning for a potentially easing rate environment. CFO Michael M. Ozimek notes that "the bank is well-positioned to continue delivering strong net interest income performance even as the Federal Reserve signals a continued potential easing cycle." The key mechanism is deposit repricing: as the Fed cuts rates, TrustCo can lower rates on its interest-bearing deposits, particularly maturing certificates of deposit, while maintaining loan yields on its fixed-rate portfolio. This dynamic should support net interest margins even as the yield curve flattens.

The bank anticipates continued loan growth, with particular strength in home equity products and residential real estate. McCormick expresses optimism about a resurgent "spring market" for purchase mortgages, citing increased pre-approvals and engagement with real estate brokers. The home equity lending team is positioned to capture demand from homeowners looking to improve existing properties or consolidate higher-cost debt. This growth is expected to be funded through organic deposit growth, maintaining the bank's avoidance of wholesale funding.

Expense management remains disciplined, with guidance that other real estate owned expenses will not exceed $250,000 per quarter. Total recurring non-interest expense for 2025 is projected to be consistent with prior year levels, suggesting management's focus on operational efficiency is sustainable. The efficiency ratio improvement of nearly 9% in the third quarter demonstrates this discipline is yielding results.

Capital allocation priorities center on the share repurchase program and potential dividend increases. With the stock trading at 1.19 times book value, management views buybacks as an attractive investment that avoids the risks inherent in other uses of capital. The authorization to repurchase 1 million shares, approximately 5% of outstanding stock, signals strong conviction. McCormick anticipates completing the current authorization and seeking approval for further substantial repurchases, stating, "the beauty of our deployed capital strategy is that we can support the lending in the way we have, while preserving our ability to execute on authorized share buyback program, which we have done and likely will continue."

The primary execution risk lies in maintaining growth while preserving credit quality. The bank's conservative underwriting has historically limited loan losses but may constrain growth in more aggressive markets. Additionally, the geographic concentration in the Northeast and Florida exposes the bank to regional economic downturns, though management notes that the Capital District of New York and Central Florida markets remain "very stable" with strong demand and limited inventory.

Risks and Asymmetries

Scale disadvantage represents the most material risk to the investment thesis. With $6.2 billion in interest-earning assets, TrustCo cannot match the technology investments or geographic diversification of larger regional banks. This limitation becomes particularly relevant as digital banking capabilities become table stakes for customer retention. While the bank's loyal customer base currently mitigates this risk, a generational shift toward digital-first banking could erode deposit market share over time. The impact would be most visible in higher customer acquisition costs and reduced pricing power on loans.

Interest rate risk cuts both ways. While the bank is positioned to benefit from deposit repricing in a falling rate environment, a steeper-than-expected rate cut cycle could compress asset yields faster than deposit costs can adjust. The securities portfolio, with $18.5 million in unrealized losses on available-for-sale securities, could experience further mark-to-market losses if rates rise unexpectedly. However, the held-to-maturity portfolio, consisting solely of agency-issued residential mortgage-backed securities, provides stable cash flows and minimal credit risk.

Geographic concentration amplifies exposure to regional economic shocks. A downturn in the Northeast real estate market or a hurricane-related disruption in Florida could disproportionately impact the loan portfolio. Management acknowledges this risk, noting that "should general housing prices and other economic measures, such as unemployment in the Company's market areas, deteriorate as a result of changes in interest rates, financial sector instability, a potential or actual default on the federal debt or other reasons, the Company may experience an increase in the level of credit risk." The bank's low loan-to-value ratios and conservative underwriting provide cushion, but cannot eliminate regional risk.

The cannabis banking venture presents regulatory uncertainty. While the company has opened this service across all its markets, the federal prohibition on cannabis creates compliance complexity and potential legal risk. However, the bank's focus on the deposit side for small retail operators, rather than lending, limits credit exposure. This initiative is best viewed as optionality rather than a core driver of value.

On the positive side, commercial real estate opportunities could provide meaningful upside. As larger banks retreat from commercial real estate due to concentration concerns, TrustCo's modest 6% allocation and conservative underwriting standards position it to selectively pick up high-quality loans at attractive spreads. McCormick's commentary suggests this will be a measured expansion rather than a strategic shift, maintaining the bank's risk profile while capturing market share from overextended competitors.

Valuation Context

At $44.38 per share, TrustCo trades at 14.74 times trailing earnings and 1.19 times book value of $37.30 per share. The price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 19.17 and price-to-operating-cash-flow ratio of 15.08 reflect reasonable valuations for a bank delivering 26.3% earnings growth. The dividend yield of 3.42% exceeds that of most regional peers, providing income while investors wait for multiple expansion.

Comparing valuation multiples reveals TrustCo's relative positioning. M&T Bank trades at 12.57 times earnings with a 1.20 price-to-book ratio and 2.94% dividend yield, while Valley National Bancorp trades at 13.55 times earnings with a 0.91 price-to-book ratio and 3.69% yield. Webster Financial trades at 11.91 times earnings with a 1.15 price-to-book ratio and 2.50% yield. TrustCo's higher P/E ratio reflects its superior growth rate, while its price-to-book ratio is in line with better-capitalized peers.

The key valuation driver is management's conviction that the stock is "significantly undervalued." This belief underpins the 1 million share buyback authorization, which at current prices would consume approximately $44 million of capital. With an equity-to-assets ratio of 10.9% and no outstanding borrowings against $979 million of Federal Home Loan Bank capacity, the bank has ample capital to execute the buyback while maintaining its well-capitalized status.

Return on equity of 8.35% trails some larger peers like Webster Financial (9.91% ROE) and M&T Bank (9.63% ROE), reflecting TrustCo's conservative leverage and smaller scale. However, the 20% year-over-year improvement in ROE demonstrates the operating leverage inherent in the business model as loan growth and margin expansion flow through to the bottom line. If the bank can sustain mid-teens earnings growth while maintaining its credit quality and capital position, the current valuation multiple should expand toward peer levels.

Conclusion

TrustCo Bank Corp NY represents a rare combination of conservative banking principles and accelerating financial performance. The portfolio lending model, funded entirely through locally gathered deposits, creates a structural cost advantage that expands net interest margins while competitors struggle with wholesale funding volatility. This simplicity is the bank's moat—by avoiding the complexity and risk of brokered deposits and borrowed funds, TrustCo delivers predictable earnings growth and exceptional credit quality.

The investment thesis hinges on two critical variables: the sustainability of home equity lending growth and management's ability to maintain credit standards while expanding the loan portfolio. The 15.7% growth in home equity credit lines, driven by a seven-day closing product and targeted marketing, demonstrates the bank's ability to innovate within its conservative framework. Meanwhile, net charge-offs that have never exceeded 0.02% annually provide confidence that growth is not coming at the expense of credit quality.

Management's capital allocation discipline, evidenced by the 1 million share buyback authorization and consistent dividend payments, aligns with shareholder interests. The view that the stock is "significantly undervalued" is supported by a price-to-book ratio of just 1.19x despite 20% ROE growth and a well-capitalized balance sheet. While scale disadvantages and geographic concentration present risks, the bank's conservative posture provides resilience in uncertain economic times.

For investors, the key question is whether TrustCo can continue growing earnings at mid-teens rates while maintaining its risk profile. If the bank executes on its commercial real estate opportunities and cannabis banking initiatives without compromising credit standards, the current valuation multiple should expand. The portfolio lender's advantage—simple, stable, and community-focused—may be exactly what generates superior returns in an increasingly complex banking environment.