TransUnion's 2025 consumer credit forecast, released on December 11, 2024, projects a slowdown in the growth of credit card balances and delinquencies by the end of 2025, following four years of increases. This outlook suggests a return to more stable credit market conditions.
Credit card balances are projected to increase to $1.09 trillion by the end of 2024, representing a 3.9% year-over-year rise, and further to $1.1 trillion by the close of 2025, a 4.4% increase. These growth rates are significantly lower than the 18.5% and 12.6% observed in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Serious credit card delinquency rates (90 or more days past due) are expected to increase to 2.76% in 2025, a 12 basis point year-over-year rise, but at a much slower pace than in previous years. This moderation is attributed to dissipating inflation pressures and a slow decline in interest rates, offering optimism for a stabilization in delinquency rates.
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