Eli Lilly released top-line data from its Phase 3 ATTAIN-1 trial evaluating orforglipron for obesity on August 7, 2025. The study showed an average weight loss of 12.4% (27.3 lbs) compared to 0.9% (2.2 lbs) with placebo. This result fell short of the 15% weight loss expectations set by analysts and investors.
The efficacy data, while positive, did not meet the higher end of market projections, leading to a negative reaction for Eli Lilly's stock. This unexpected setback for a leading competitor in the oral weight-loss drug space creates a new dynamic in the market. It suggests that achieving very high efficacy with oral formulations may be more challenging than previously anticipated.
For Viking Therapeutics, this development is potentially very bullish. It lowers the competitive bar for its own oral VK2735, which is also in development for obesity. The perceived gap in efficacy between Eli Lilly's drug and market expectations could provide an opportunity for Viking to differentiate its product and capture a larger share of the oral obesity market.
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