XP Inc. released its Brazil Macro Monthly research report on April 22, 2025, presenting a more optimistic outlook for the Brazilian economy. The company's economists revised their GDP growth forecasts upward to 2.3% for 2025, from a previous 2.0%, and to 1.5% for 2026, up from 1.0%.
These upward revisions are attributed to strong job market performance, resilient household income, and recent stimulus measures from the federal government. Specific initiatives include additional funding for the "Minha Casa Minha Vida" housing program and an expansion of payroll-deductible credit.
Caio Megale, XP's Chief Economist, noted that Brazil's domestic momentum remains strong despite elevated external risks. He emphasized that while fiscal stimulus and a robust labor market provide important buffers, persistent inflation pressures indicate that monetary policy will need to remain tight for a longer duration.
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